Posing Questions: Efficiency “Ceteris Paribus” in Energy Issues
(Part 4 of article series: Energy and Technological Progress: Bridging the Gap)
Continuing our discussion on efficiency, we previously addressed the distribution of resources, emphasizing that territory and space are limited resources. We highlighted the need to consider the ratio of energy generated per unit of territory.
In the next parts, we will delve into additional aspects of the effective use of technology.
Before proceeding with new aspects, I want to share some thoughts that frequently arise when reviewing studies and interpretations of research results.
Ceteris paribus
Let’s begin with the concept of “other things being equal” (ceteris paribus), often used to isolate individual indicators by excluding the influence of difficult-to-calculate parameters, those that may distort the result, or parameters that have not yet been studied or are deemed irrelevant.
This is a crucial point because it seems that, in the pursuit of good performance indicators, the modern scientific community and specialists often neglect this condition in research.
On one hand, this neglect may appear natural given the increasing number of parameters to consider with technological advancements, especially in efficiency-related issues, which adds a significant burden. With the development of technology, we face an exponential increase in the complexity of systems and the interactions between various factors. This complexity makes it challenging to isolate and study individual parameters comprehensively. The need to account for numerous variables can be overwhelming, leading researchers to rely on simplifying assumptions such as ceteris paribus to make their studies manageable.
However, with today’s advancements in data processing volume and speed, and the capabilities of modern computer technology and information modeling, we can manage a far greater number of parameters than we could in the last century. The evolution of technology has dramatically expanded our ability to process vast amounts of data quickly and accurately. High-performance computing, advanced algorithms, and artificial intelligence enable us to analyze complex systems with unprecedented detail. Information models can simulate and predict interactions between countless variables, offering deeper insights than ever before.
This means that the ratio of the number of parameters we can handle to our computational capabilities has improved significantly, surpassing the limitations faced by researchers in the past.
This raises the question: is the use of “other things being equal” in analyzing efficiency today a deliberate simplification for certain interests, whether businesses or populists?
The depth of perception of information in modern society
This question leads us to a broader and very important topic: the depth of perception of information in modern society. In an age where information is abundant and easily accessible, the ability to deeply understand and critically evaluate complex data is becoming increasingly rare.
The tendency to simplify and condense information for quick consumption often results in a superficial understanding of critical issues. This superficiality can be exploited by those with vested interests, using simplifications like ceteris paribus to mask the true complexity of problems and sway public opinion or policy in their favor.
The depth of perception of information in modern society is a topic deserving of its own series of articles, as it impacts not just scientific research, but also public discourse, education, and decision-making processes. It’s crucial to foster a culture that values deep, nuanced understanding and critical thinking, rather than one that prioritizes quick, easy answers.
Simplification
Simplification in perception models often leads to the exclusion of important parameters, and ceteris paribus can obscure the fact that an issue has not been thoroughly studied. This can lead to unexpected conclusions, where what was considered, effective yesterday is found ineffective today, and vice versa. The drive for immediate profit by businesses, as the primary investors in innovation today, exacerbates this situation.
The desire for immediate profit often pushes businesses to prioritize short-term gains over long-term sustainability and thorough research. As key investors in innovation, their decisions heavily influence the direction of technological advancements. Unfortunately, this can lead to oversights and shortcuts in the development process, where crucial parameters are overlooked or simplified under the guise of “other things being equal.”
Returning to our initial topic, we find ourselves boasting about the significant increase in parameters of models like GPT-4 compared to GPT-3, approaching a trillion parameters. Yet, we overlook hundreds of crucial parameters or simplify them under “other things being equal,” especially concerning vital topics for humanity’s development.
Let’s highlight the pressing reality of our finite freshwater reservoirs as a quintessential example for our discussion
Picture this: in our homes, we’ve taken strides to conserve water by installing smart taps that shut off automatically when not in use. Yet, amidst these efforts, a gaping gateway remains unnoticed, a meter-wide conduit funneling precious water into the sewer at an alarming rate.
Instead of confronting this blatant wastage and seeking solutions to optimize water conservation, our focus shifts elsewhere. We pour resources into elaborate endeavors like seawater desalination technologies, investing heavily in processes that extract freshwater from the ocean. Meanwhile, oblivious to the irony, we forge ahead with plans to construct additional conduits, further hastening the loss of this invaluable resource.
This example vividly illustrates our tendency to overlook glaring inefficiencies while pursuing seemingly innovative solutions. Despite our advancements in technology and understanding, we often fail to address fundamental issues, ultimately exacerbating the very problems we seek to solve.
Eludes our attention
Despite the fervent discussions surrounding the efficiency of energy supply and generation, it’s apparent that our focus remains narrowly fixated. Councils convene, forums buzz with dialogue, and communities mobilize around the pursuit of refining energy production methods. Yet, amidst this collective effort, a crucial aspect of efficiency often eludes our attention.
While advancements in energy generation hold promise for bolstering efficiency and sustainability, our fixation on optimizing existing systems blinds us to the broader picture. We fail to recognize that the root cause of energy waste lies not solely in the methods of generation, but rather in the heedless consumption patterns.
In essence, the pursuit of energy efficiency demands a paradigm shift—one that transcends mere technological advancement to embrace a holistic approach rooted in sustainability, equity, and conscientious resource management.
By broadening our scope to encompass not just the means of energy production, but also the manner of its utilization in modern technologies, we can forge a path towards a more resilient and equitable energy future.
To be continued …
