Goldman Sachs has adjusted its oil outlook following the U.S.-Iran truce, cutting its near-term price forecasts while keeping an upside warning firmly in place. The message is not that oil has lost its strength. It is that the immediate risk premium has come down, but the underlying danger has not gone away.
Goldman trimmed its second-quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 per barrel from $99, and its WTI forecast to $87 per barrel from $91, citing a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium and early signs of improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.
“Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH, we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI,” Goldman’s commodity analysts wrote in the note.
Goldman left its Q3 forecasts untouched at $82 per barrel for Brent and $77 for WTI, with a Q4 base case of $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI, according to OilPrice.com.
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But the bank kept a sharp upside scenario on the table. In a severe case where the ceasefire fails and persistent Middle East production losses reach around 2 million barrels per day, Brent could average $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter. If the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly shut for another month, Goldman flagged Brent could average $120 in Q3 and $115 in Q4, OilPrice.com reported.
“We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside,” Goldman said.
Goldman’s forecast reset reflects a basic principle of how oil markets work: prices respond not just to actual supply losses but to the probability of those losses. When the ceasefire reduced the near-term risk of escalation, the bank moved its Q2 expectations down accordingly. That is not a bearish call. It is an acknowledgment that the market no longer needs to price in the most extreme short-term scenario.
The underlying conflict remains unresolved. If the truce breaks down, the risk premium can rebuild quickly. That concern is already materializing. Reports suggested the ceasefire did not hold even 24 hours, and maritime intelligence firm Windward said “the strait has not reopened, it is in a supervised pause,” according to OilPrice.com. Brent prices rebounded on Thursday as those doubts emerged, Reuters reported.
Goldman also revised its European gas forecasts alongside the oil cuts, lowering its Q2 TTF gas price forecast to 50 euros per megawatt-hour from 70, assuming a gradual normalization of LNG flows through Hormuz by mid-April. If those flows are delayed or infrastructure is damaged, prices could exceed 75 euros per megawatt-hour, according to Nairametrics.
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Q2 Brent: $90/bbl (down from $99); Q2 WTI: $87/bbl (down from $91)
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Q3 Brent: $82/bbl (unchanged); Q3 WTI: $77/bbl (unchanged)
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Q4 base case Brent: $80/bbl; Q4 WTI: $75/bbl
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Q4 upside scenario: Brent at $115/bbl if ceasefire fails and ~2 mbpd production losses persist
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Extended Hormuz closure scenario: Brent $120 in Q3, $115 in Q4
Oil stocks usually benefit when crude prices rise, but they can also get whipsawed when sentiment changes suddenly. A cooling of tensions can pressure energy shares even when the long-term supply backdrop remains tight. If the ceasefire fails, those same names can rebound fast.
ANZ noted separately that oil supply disruptions have materially tightened the global crude balance, shifting the market rapidly from an early-year surplus to a sizeable deficit, according to Reuters. That structural shift does not disappear with a two-week truce.
Goldman’s revised setup is straightforward: calmer prices for now, but a market that remains one headline away from another sharp move. The Q2 cut reflects a lower probability of immediate disruption. The $115 warning reflects how quickly that probability can change.
Related: Longtime oil analyst sends dire oil price message
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Apr 9, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
