What if gas hits $10 a gallon? Many Bay Area commuters say they’d keep driving anyway

Grand Gasoline on San Pablo Avenue has a direct sightline to the El Cerrito Del Norte BART station. But many drivers who fill up there say they wouldn’t consider taking BART – even if gas prices hit $10 a gallon.

“For me, it’s just not an option,” said Leo Sanchez of Concord, hooking a fuel nozzle into his white Chevrolet pick-up truck. He uses the vehicle for work and said he currently pays about $20 a day for gas, a figure that could quickly increase amid the ongoing war with Iran.

Bay Area motorists have noticed the uptick. Prices at Grand swelled from $4.85 a gallon last week to $5.29 on Wednesday. Down the street, a Chevron station advertised rates starting at $5.89. Those numbers keep rising. Experts predict the statewide average could soon eclipse $7 a gallon as Iran jolts oil markets.A Chevron station in Menlo Park went viral after charging $7.80 a gallon for premium, eliciting as much panic as the egg prices during last year’s avian flu outbreak.

Still, most people grit their teeth and dig deeper in their wallets. So far, no gas price is high enough to nudge them out of their cars.

“I just don’t know if I have a breaking point,” said Samrit Upadhaya of Richmond. “I haven’t even thought about it.”

Data gathered by the Chronicle shows just how attached people are to their automobiles. According to the 2024 U.S. Census, 83% of workers in central Antioch (ZIP code 94509) said they commute by car or truck, despite having a BART station nearby. That figure drops to about 46% in transit-rich El Cerrito (ZIP code 94530), which has two BART stations and multiple bus lines that serve a little more than half the city’s commuter population. In northern Vallejo (ZIP code 94589), residents live far from BART, but reasonably close to buses and ferries. Apparently, few take advantage of the service. Almost 87% of commuters drive to work.

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Among them is Alfonso Quinones. He acknowledged spending about $130 a day to fill up his Toyota Tacoma truck and drive from Vallejo to San Francisco. If prices continue surging, Quinones said he may cut back driving on weekends. He cannot imagine giving up his car altogether.

“I have tried to take the ferry,” he said. “But the last one leaves San Francisco at 8 p.m., and sometimes I have to work until 10 p.m. BART does not go to Vallejo, and the bus takes too long.”

A car provides flexibility and cargo space, Quinones added, noting that he often has to carry a 100-pound tool kit for his job setting up convention sites. Often, he drops his daughter off at school in Berkeley, which is too hard to manage on public transportation.

And honestly, Quinones said, “I love driving.”

Of nine drivers who spoke to the Chronicle, only one expressed willingness to change his habits. Paul Taylor of Berkeley said he would prefer walking over driving, but he can’t right now because he’s been displaced from his apartment, and has to store a lot of luggage in his SUV. Some said they would sacrifice other comforts, like nightlife or dining out, if gas prices keep soaring. A few said they might skimp on groceries. Sanchez said he has contemplated moving to another state, where gas and living expenses are more affordable.

One driver, Anthony Brewer of Richmond, said he saves money by filling his Subaru tank with ethanol fuel. Others, however, saw little point in buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle.

“You can’t use them in the carpool lanes any more, and if the battery breaks down, you’re stuck,” Quinones said. “I’d rather have a gas car that I know how to fix if it stops on the side of the road.”

Laura Tolkoff, transportation policy director at SPUR, is optimistic that some groups might be persuaded to try transit or carpooling once gas hits the $10 mark.

“There are people for whom $10 is an inconvenience, and there are people for whom $10 is a real burden,” Tolkoff said.

Yet habits and life patterns are hard to break. If a person’s work, day care, school drop-off, grocery store or doctor’s appointment is inaccessible without a car, surging gas prices won’t change that. Most people will just endure the extra cost.

That rings true for Sephine Milan, a Berkeley resident who drives to San Jose a couple times a week for work. She gets fed up with the traffic, the long commute times, the monotony of the freeway and – yes – the cost of gas. Nonetheless, it’s hard to fathom a price that would force her off the road. It would definitely have to exceed $10 a gallon, she said.

Even then, Milan assured, “gas alone wouldn’t be the tipping point.”

This article originally published at What if gas hits $10 a gallon? Many Bay Area commuters say they’d keep driving anyway.