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IEA says 7.5% of global oil supply will be disrupted, the most in history. (0:15) Goldman delays expected Fed rate cuts amid inflation risks. (0:54) Eli Lilly warns on compounded weight-loss drug. (1:54)
This is an abridged transcript of the podcast:
Our top story so far, the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict has triggered what the International Energy Agency calls the largest supply shock in the history of global oil markets, disrupting roughly 7.5% of worldwide supply.
In its monthly report, the IEA said escalating hostilities following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 have severely curtailed flows through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy arteries.
Tanker traffic through the strait, which carried about 20M barrels per day of crude and refined products last year, has fallen more than 90%, according to multiple media reports.
The agency estimates the conflict could reduce global oil supply by around 8M barrels per day this month.
On the economic front, that sound echoing through Wall Street?
Economists erasing their Fed forecasts.
Goldman Sachs has pushed back its expected timing for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut this year, citing higher inflation risks tied to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
Goldman now expects the FOMC to begin easing in September, rather than earlier in the year. The bank still anticipates two cuts in 2026, with the second likely in December.
“But if the labor market weakens sooner and more substantially than we expect, we do not think concern about the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and inflation expectations would be an obstacle to earlier rate cuts,” economists said.
Among active stocks, Blue Owl Capital (OWL) told investors at a recent private conference that its sale of $1.4B in loans from three of its funds included no backstops or hidden incentives, according to Bloomberg.
Blue Owl said the four institutions that bought the debt did so on an arm’s-length basis, conducted their own due diligence, purchased on identical terms, and received no special guarantees.
Eli Lilly (LLY) issued a public warning about potential safety risks tied to compounded versions of the weight-loss drug tirzepatide when mixed with vitamin B12.
Lilly said testing found “significant levels of an impurity” caused by a chemical reaction between the vitamin and tirzepatide — the active ingredient in its blockbuster drug Zepbound.
And Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) is higher after beating Q4 estimates, marking its first full quarter incorporating Foot Locker results.
The retailer now sees FY27 revenue of $22.1B to $22.4B, roughly in line with the $22.1B consensus, and EPS of $13.50 to $14.50, below the $14.97 consensus.
In other news of note, artificial intelligence is advancing so quickly that companies should stop thinking of it as just a better chatbot and start treating it as a system that can carry out hours of independent work, according to Ethan Mollick.
Speaking at the UBS Global Consumer and Retail Conference, the Wharton School professor said AI has entered a new phase in which agents can plan, research, write code and complete tasks with limited human input.
That shift, he said, has major implications for white-collar work, corporate strategy and consumer behavior.
“If you haven’t changed anything you do as a result of having these tools — if you haven’t changed any part of the process — that’s a mistake,” Mollick said.
In his view, AI is no longer a novelty or a future concept.
It is already capable enough to reshape how many kinds of business work get done — and companies waiting for perfect clarity may find the disruption arrives first.
And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Bank of America says Healthcare (XLV) and Information Technology (XLK) – that old defensive/growth combo — are the favored sectors among stocks with the highest hedge fund exposure.
Looking at S&P names with the most net relative exposure by hedge funds, the top holdings include Incyte (INCY), Centene (CNC), Hologic (HOLX), News Corp. (NWSA) and VeriSign (VRSN).
You can see the full top 20 here.
Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
