The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 4.25% this week, as policymakers weigh rising geopolitical risks, persistent inflation, and conflicting domestic economic data.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its decision on Thursday, and markets are betting that it will maintain its “gradual and careful” approach to easing policy. Since August 2024, the BoE has reduced rates four times amid stubborn inflation and resilient wage growth.
However, divisions have emerged within the committee. May’s meeting revealed a more fractured consensus, dampening expectations of a faster pace of rate cuts. A subsequent batch of weaker domestic data has since revived speculation that the MPC may slow down its pace in lowering borrowing costs.
“This month’s Bank of England policy meeting should be as straightforward a decision [to leave rates unchanged] as they come,” said George Buckley, economist at Nomura.
“We continue to look for 3.5% terminal rates by February next year — i.e., three 25bp cuts at Monetary Policy Report meetings. We think that the settling point would be at the upper end of the neutral range. This is a modestly quicker cutting cycle than the market sees.”
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The central bank faces a complex global and domestic backdrop. Rising oil prices (BZ=F) following Israeli airstrikes on Iran have reignited fears of broader conflict in the Middle East, compounding volatility already driven by US president Donald Trump’s shifting trade policy.
Meanwhile, sterling (GBPUSD=X), has strengthened sharply against the dollar, further complicating the inflation outlook.
Domestically, the picture remains uncertain. The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in April, reversing earlier growth. Wage growth slowed markedly in the three months to April, and the unemployment rate ticked higher, raising questions about the underlying strength of the labour market.
Inflation, however, remains a central concern. Consumer price inflation was originally thought to have risen to 3.5% in April, its highest in over a year, up from 2.6% in March. The Office for National Statistics later revised the figure slightly downward to 3.4%, after it discovered it had been given incorrect road tax data by the Department for Transport.
“Monetary policy seems to be in a good position, allowing the Bank of England to wait and see how economic conditions and the international political backdrop evolve,” said Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec. “Ultimately, this is a highly uncertain time that requires a potentially nimble response from central banks, limiting any great foresight.”
The next data, for May, will be released on 18 June, the day the Bank begins its two-day meeting.
Sarah Coles, personal finance columnist at Yahoo Finance UK and head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “If inflation figures don’t hold any surprises, interest rates are held, and expectations stick for two more cuts this year, we could well see rates fall again.”
Paul Dales, chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, said that April’s GDP contraction “won’t prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates next Thursday. But it is one more piece of news pointing to another cut in August”.
Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, shared a similar view: “We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 4.25% on 19 June. But increased concerns around the labour market are likely, in our view. Global risks in May are likely to give way to domestic risks in June. And we expect the MPC to open the door to an August rate cut.”
He added: “We stick to our call for three quarter-point rate cuts this year (Aug, Nov, Dec) and one final rate cut in February, taking the Bank Rate to 3.25%.”
Others are also anticipating a summer move. Enrique Diaz-Alvarez, chief economist at Ebury, said: “Against this backdrop, the Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady this week, but absent a strong inflation report, the MPC may well signal that the next cut could come in the summer. This may come in the form of a tweak to the bank’s hawkish bias or the voting pattern, with the possibility that two or three officials vote for an immediate cut on Thursday.
ING analysts also flagged August as the likely next move. “Barring big surprises in the data over the next month, we think the latest disappointing jobs numbers help cement an August rate cut. Bear in mind that at 4.25%, Bank Rate is still very much in restrictive territory, which offers the Bank plenty of scope to keep lowering it. We expect a further cut in November and two more moves in 2026, taking the terminal rate to 3.25%.”
However, not all market participants are convinced Threadneedle Street will act soon.
Read more: UK economy shrinks by 0.3% in April
“While the broader trajectory for rates remains downward, the path ahead now looks shallower than previously anticipated,” said Steve Matthews, investment director for liquidity at Canada Life Asset Management. “Market pricing suggests the next move is unlikely before September, and possibly later. Added to this, uncertainty around US tariffs and trade policy is creating a more cautious global backdrop—no one wants to make a move prematurely.”
Across the Atlantic, all eyes turn to the US Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Investors will be closely watching updated economic projections, seeking clues on how heavily policymakers are factoring in recent signs of economic softness and the degree of concern around ongoing trade uncertainty, unresolved fiscal negotiations, and the growing risk of conflict in the Middle East.
The Bank of England is set to announce its latest interest rate decision at midday on Thursday 19 June.
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