Vaclav Smil’s Warning: The Current Energy Transition is Unfeasible

In his May 2024 analysis, “Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050 – Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome,” Vaclav Smil makes it unequivocally clear: the goals of the energy transition are unrealistic in their current form. Excessive costs, inadequate technologies, and a non-scalable infrastructure stand in the way. Smil emphasizes that global energy consumption remains dominated by fossil fuels and that renewable technologies lack the speed and capacity needed to replace them. He also highlights that the growing energy demand in emerging markets and the complexity of supply chains for renewables significantly hinder true transformation. Smil calls for a radical change in thinking and action to steer the energy transition toward feasibility.

Prof. Gordon Hughes: The Inefficiency of Wind Energy

In his report, “WHO’S THE PATSY? – Offshore wind’s high-stakes poker game,” Prof. Gordon Hughes analyzes the economic and technical mismanagement of many wind energy projects, particularly in the offshore sector. His warnings about high costs, unreliable yields, and substantial maintenance requirements are increasingly proving accurate. Many offshore projects are being scaled back as they fail to deliver the expected results.

Warnings from the Global Wind Energy Council and Recent Developments

Recent events underline the validity of these warnings. Stock market crashes among major players in the offshore wind sector—such as Siemens Energy, which required €15 billion in government guarantees (source: Tagesschau)—and the cancellation of numerous projects worldwide demonstrate that the economic viability of many wind energy projects is deeply questionable. This decline is most evident in Denmark, a pioneer in wind energy with some of the best wind conditions in Europe, which installed only 54 MW of new wind parks in 2023 (as illustrated in the accompanying chart). Offshore wind farms are under particular pressure due to high costs and technical challenges that often fail to meet expected returns.

Source: WindEurope

The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) raised the alarm a year ago in its report, “MISSION CRITICAL: BUILDING THE GLOBAL WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5°C WORLD.” The global supply chain for wind energy is insufficient to meet climate goals. Massive delays and rising costs further hinder the expansion of renewable energies.

The Limitations of HAWTs: A Technical and Ecological Disaster

A flow simulation by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) makes one thing clear: Today’s horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs) generate most of their energy only at the blade tips. A large portion of the airflow, especially near the rotor root, remains unutilized.

Credit: DLR (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)

Furthermore, modern wind towers exceed heights of 200 meters, requiring massive resource investment: for instance, approximately 17 million trees were felled in Scotland over the past 20 years for this purpose (source: Scottish Daily Express).

• Material Waste: Thousands of tons of concrete and steel for foundations and towers, which will remain embedded in the ground for several hundred years.
• Environmental Impact: Significant alterations to landscapes and ecosystems, often difficult to justify.
• Inefficiency in Rotor Area Utilization: Only about 5% of the rotor area—the blade tips—effectively harness the available wind potential.

Offshore projects fare no better: The planned “Sofia” wind farm by RWE in the Dogger Bank illustrates the inefficiency and costliness of this technology. A map of wind energy density in the Dogger Bank shows that even at a height of 200 meters, only 1,429 W/m² is achieved, underscoring the high resource demands and technical challenges of such offshore projects. Costs for underwater cables, foundations, and the 220-kilometer distance to the coast drive construction and operation costs to astronomical levels. Planning for Sofia has taken over a decade.

The Alternative: Ground-Level Wind Energy in Mountain Regions

Thirty percent of the Earth’s surface consists of mountain regions where wind energy density near the ground is often extremely high—sometimes well over 5,000 W/m², but also more than 92,000 W/m² at wind speeds of 48 m/s, as is the case in glaciers in Patagonia. An example is Cumberland in England: Using the Global Wind Atlas, a region was identified where wind energy density at just 10 meters above ground far surpasses that of many offshore locations, with a density of 5,500 W/m²—three times higher than in the Dogger Bank. If RWE invested in Cumberland instead of offshore, costs could be significantly reduced, and efficiency maximized.

Advantages of ground-level wind energy:

• More Efficient Use of Wind Potential: Smaller turbines or innovative designs like the “Waters Turbine” can harness wind directly at the ground without the need for tall towers.
• Lower Resource Requirements: No need for massive foundations that remain permanently embedded in the ground, less material usage, lower maintenance costs.
• Easier Integration into Decentralized Systems: Ground-level setups enable more flexible installations and hybridizations with solar and thermal technologies.
• Shorter Approval Processes: Projects in mountain regions can be realized faster than offshore projects.

A New Approach: Hybrid Solutions and Synergies

The future of the energy transition lies in hybrid solutions that combine various renewable energy sources. Ground-level wind potential in mountain regions can ideally be paired with solar energy, thermal storage, hydrogen production, and natural gas backups. Artificial intelligence (AI) plays a central role in efficiently coordinating and optimizing these processes.

An Example of a Hybrid System:

1. Ground-Level Wind Energy Systems: Wind turbines or vortex-based designs harness the strong wind density in valleys or slopes.
2. Solar Thermal Systems: Modern concentrating optical systems that can focus sunlight up to 1,000 times or PV modules provide daytime energy.
3. Hydrogen Production: Surplus energy is used for electrolysis to produce hydrogen, serving as a long-term storage solution.
4. Natural Gas Backup: Gas-powered generators capitalize on the advantage of being a pre-stored energy source, ensuring flexibility and reliability during extended wind and solar downtimes.
5. Thermal Storage: Hot air or sand stores energy for periods without sun or wind.
6. AI-Based Process Coordination: AI monitors, controls, and optimizes energy flows by analyzing demand, weather conditions, and storage capacities.
7. Grid Integration: The generated energy is either used locally or fed into the grid as surplus power.

How Can We Achieve This Shift?

To enable this paradigm shift, we must expose the current wastefulness of the inefficient energy transition and educate stakeholders:

1. Create Transparency: Provide a clear analysis of the inefficiencies of current projects like Sofia compared to alternative approaches.
2. Engage Investors: Data-driven reports highlighting the cost-effectiveness and profitability of hybrid solutions in mountain regions can attract funding.
3. Inform the Public: Stories like that of Cumberland—where a better location was identified in minutes compared to the 11 years of effort RWE spent identifying the site for the Dogger Bank project—can raise awareness.
4. Gain Political Support: Subsidies and regulations must be redirected from inefficient large-scale projects to innovative, decentralized solutions.
5. Foster Innovation: Technologies like the “Waters Turbine” or ground-level wind energy need further development and scaling.

Next Steps for Implementing New Approaches

1. Cost-Efficiency Calculations: Ground-level wind and hybrid solutions are significantly cheaper than offshore wind farms. For example, building a hybrid power plant in Cumberland could cost 40% less than a comparable offshore wind farm due to reduced expenses for foundations, underwater cables, and maintenance.
2. Success Stories: Projects integrating ground-level wind energy in regions like Norway and Chile demonstrate the efficiency of such approaches. In Chile, hybrid solar plants and ground-level wind turbines met the power needs of copper mines while reducing CO₂ emissions by 60%.
3. Technology Roadmap:
   • Short-Term: Identify suitable locations using tools like the Global Wind Atlas.
   • Mid-Term: Develop scalable prototypes and test hybrid solutions.
   • Long-Term: Build a decentralized infrastructure fostering locally adapted solutions.
4. Resource Availability and Sustainability:
   • Ground-level turbines require less material and allow for more efficient use of local resources like wind and sunlight, reducing the need for large-scale environmental interventions.
5. Funding and Subsidy Programs:
   • Governments and international institutions can offer specific subsidies for ground-level and hybrid energy systems. For instance, the European Union’s hydrogen project funding is an example.
6. Market Analysis and Demand Forecasts:
   • The global demand for decentralized energy sources is steadily increasing. Hybrid solutions could meet up to 25% of global electricity demand by 2035.
7. Partnerships and Networks:
   • Collaboration between technology developers, policymakers, and NGOs could accelerate implementation. Platforms like the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) provide opportunities to foster such networks.
8. Interactive Visualizations:
   • Maps, simulations, and diagrams, such as those from the Global Wind Atlas, can help convince the public and investors of these approaches’ advantages. These tools could also inspire the next generation of energy experts through educational programs.

A Call for Collaboration

To achieve something unprecedented, we must do something unprecedented. Implementing these innovative approaches requires cooperation among science, industry, politics, and society. We invite technology developers, investors, policymakers, and NGOs to join forces in pursuing a sustainable energy transition. The combination of ground-level wind energy, hybrid solutions, and AI-driven coordination offers not only an economic but also a sustainable alternative to existing solutions.

Implementing these innovative approaches requires cooperation among science, industry, politics, and society. We invite technology developers, investors, policymakers, and NGOs to join forces in pursuing a sustainable energy transition. The combination of ground-level wind energy, hybrid solutions, and AI-driven coordination offers not only an economic but also a sustainable alternative to existing solutions.

Be part of this transformation and help create a smarter, more flexible, and sustainable energy future. Together, let’s redefine the energy transition!

Conclusion: A Smarter, More Sustainable Energy Transition

The energy transition is stuck in a cycle of inefficient standard solutions that waste resources and ignore the potential of innovative technologies. It is time to recognize ground-level wind energy and hybrid solutions as the key to a more sustainable, flexible, and economical energy future. The mountains and deserts are waiting to unleash their potential—we just need the courage to embrace the right technology.

Contact information:

Ryszard Dzikowski

info@nrgrock.com