The Journey Towards Carbon Neutrality

BACKGROUND:

The first reference to climate change started towards the end of the 1950s – Spencer Weart, Retired director of Center for History of Physics, Maryland in an email expressed, “It was just a possibility for the 21^st Century which seemed very far away, but seen as a danger that should be prepared for”.  Weart’s Discovery of Global warming website had debated whether draining swamps/cutting trees might bring more or less rainfall to the region.

Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) felt that human activities release carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases that trap sun’s radiation and hold them in the atmosphere to increase temperature similar to greenhouse and that led to the term, ‘Greenhouse Effect’.  Unfortunately, this work was neither widely read nor accepted / was it intended to serve as a warning.  Instead, people believed that warming was indeed beneficial, as authenticated by Weart.

The article published in Popular Mechanics (1912) indicated that fossil fuels affect climate.  The article which was covered by a few newspapers in New Zealand and Australia recognized that burning coal released carbon dioxide that could increase Earth’s temperature which led to the belief, “the effect may be considerable in a few centuries.

Scientific community started uniting for action on climate change in the 1980s (almost 3 decades after the initial reference) and currently, we are witnessing that the early warnings are indeed escalating.  Even they seem to be just the tip of the iceberg as our activities affecting climate dates back thousands of years.

EARLY RESEARCH:

It is sixty years after Arrhenius’s realization that climate change attracted serious attention with the first publication by Roger Revelle (1909-1991) who found that the ocean will not absorb all the carbon dioxide released due to industrial fuel emissions thus resulting in increased carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere.  Charles Keeling (1928-2005), three years later detected an annual rise in carbon dioxide levels in the Earth’s atmosphere.  It is then that scientists began to raise concern of rising carbon dioxide level to impact that this could have on the world.

More studies started highlighting climate change as a potential threat to species and ecosystems and insisted real action in 1988 at the Toronto Conference which, was attended by scientists and politicians around the world on the changing atmosphere.  By 1990s although most scientists felt action was necessary, opposition from fossil fuel companies and ideologists opposed to any governmental action.

SEQUENCE OF DEVELOPMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE:

The seriousness attached to Climate Change would be more evident from the number of meetings of not only Scientists but also, government representatives held so far.   The brief until the decision that Conference of Parties (COPs) meetings would continue is outlined under:

The key events, that followed the First World Climate Conference, 1979 included Villach Conference (1985); Toronto Conference (June 1988); Ottawa Conference (February 1989); Hague Conference and Declaration (March 1989); Cairo Compact (December 1989) and Bergen Conference (May 1990).

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established by UNEP and WMO was given the mandate to assess the state of existing knowledge about the climate system and climate change – they released the First Assessment Report in 1990 confirming the scientific evidence for climate change and enabled governments to base their policy decisions on the most up-to-date information available.  The second World Climate Conference of 1990 called for a framework treaty on climate change – it featured negotiations and ministerial level discussions among 137 states plus the European Community.

Twenty years after the 1972 Stockholm Declaration first laid the foundations of contemporary environmental policy, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed by 154 states (Plus EC) at Rio de Janeiro in 1992.  This triggered the initiation of Conference of Parties (COPs) first meeting in Berlin from 28 March to 7 April 1995 which was attended by delegates from 117 Parties and 53 Observer States as did over 2000 observers and journalists.

Conference of Parties (COPs) directs the world leaders

COP 1: Berlin Germany 1995 Parties agreed that commitments in the convention were ‘inadequate’ for meeting convention objectives.  The Berlin mandate establishes a process to negotiate strengthened commitments for developed countries, thus laying the groundwork for the Kyoto Protocol.

COP 2:  Geneva, Switzerland 1996 – Accepted scientific findings on climate change by IPCC

COP 3: Dec.11, 1997 – Kyoto Protocol Adopted. Historical milestone with this adoption – The World’s First greenhouse gas emission reduction treaty

COP 4: Buenos Aires, Argentina  1998 – Complexity and difficulty of funding agreement on the issues proved surmountable.  Adopted two year plan of action.

COP 5: Bonn, Germany – 1999 Primarily a technical meeting and did not reach major conclusions

COP 6:– Bonn.  Major breakthrough with governments reaching a broad political agreements on the operational rulebook for the 1997 Kyoto Ptotocol

COP 7: Nov. 2001 Murrakesh – Stage for ratification of the Kyoto Protocol – formalise agreement on operational rules for international emissions Trading, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) with a compliance regime and accounting procedure.

COP 8: New Delhi India 2002 – COP 8 adopted the Delhi Ministerial Declaration[14] that, amongst others, called for efforts by developed countries to transfer technology and minimize the impact of climate change on developing countries.

The Kyoto Protocol could enter into force once it was ratified by 55 countries, including countries responsible for 55 per cent of the developed world’s 1990 carbon dioxide emissions.

COP 9:  Milan  Italy  2003 – The parties agreed to use the Adaptation Fund established at COP7 in 2001 primarily in supporting developing countries better adapt to climate change. The fund would also be used for capacity-building through technology transfer. At COP9, the parties also agreed to review the first national reports submitted by 110 non-Annex I countries.

COP 10: Buenos Aires, Argentine  2004 – discussed the progress made since the first Conference of the Parties 10 years ago and its future challenges, with special emphasis on climate change mitigation and adaptation. To promote developing countries better adapt to climate change, the Buenos Aires Plan of Action was adopted. The parties also began discussing the post-Kyoto mechanism, on how to allocate emission reduction obligation following 2012, when the first commitment period ends.

COP 11: Dec. 2005 – Montreal.  First time is held in conjunction with the first Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties (CMP 1).

COP 12:  Nov. 2006 Nairobi, Kenya –  The Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice SBSTA is mandated to undertake a programme to address impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change – the Nairobi Work Programme NWP activities are on-going.

COP 13: Dec. 2007 –Bali – Adopts the Bali Road Map, including the Bali Action Plan, charting the course for a new negotiating process to address climate change. The Plan has five main categories: shared  vision, mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing

COP 14: Dec. 2008 – Poznan, Poland – Delivers important steps towards assisting developing countries, including the launch of the Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto Protocol and the Poznan Strategic Programme on Technology Transfer

COP 15:  Dec. 2009 – Copenhagen, Denmark – Which produced the Copenhagen Accord. Developed countries pledge up to USD 30 billion in fast-start finance for the period 2010-2012. The conference did not achieve a binding agreement for long-term action.  The accord was notable in that it referred to a collective commitment by developed countries for new and additional resources, including forestry and investments through international institutions that will approach US$30 billion for the period 2010–2012

COP 16 / CMP 6 – Cancum  Mexico 2010 – The outcome of the summit was an agreement adopted by the states’ parties that called for the US$100 billion per annum “Green Climate Fund“, and a “Climate Technology Centre” and network. However the funding of the Green Climate Fund was not agreed upon. Nor was a commitment to a second period of the Kyoto Protocol agreed upon, but it was concluded that the base year shall be 1990 and the global warming potentials shall be those provided by the IPCC.

COP 17 / CMP  7 – Durban, South Africa 2011  The conference agreed to a start negotiations on a legally binding deal comprising all countries, to be adopted in 2015, governing the period post 2020. There was also progress regarding the creation of a Green Climate Fund (GCF) for which a management framework was adopted. The fund is to distribute US$100 billion per year to help poor countries adapt to climate impacts

COP 18 / CMP 8  Doha, Qatar 2012: The Doha Climate Gateway  The Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol (to be accepted before entering into force) featuring a second commitment period running from 2012 until 2020 limited in scope to 15% of the global carbon dioxide emissions due to the lack of commitments of Japan, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, New Zealand (nor the United States and Canada, who are not parties to the Protocol in that period) and due to the fact that developing countries like China (the world’s largest emitter), India and Brazil are not subject to emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.

COP 19 / CMP 9 Warshaw  Poland  2013: COP 19 was the 19th yearly session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 9th session of the Meeting of the Parties (CMP) to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (the protocol having been developed under the UNFCCC’s charter). The most prominent result was the adoption of the Warsaw Framework for REDD-plus.

COP 20 / CMP 10  Lima Peru  2014:  The pre-COP conference was held in Venezuela

COP 21 / CMP 11  Paris France 2015:  Negotiations resulted in the adoption of the Paris Agreement on 12 December, governing climate change reduction measures from 2020. The adoption of this agreement ended the work of the Durban platform, established during COP17. The agreement will enter into force (and thus become fully effective) on 4 November 2016. On 4 October 2016 the threshold for adoption was reached with over 55 countries representing at least 55% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions ratifying the Agreements.

COP 22/CMP12/CMA1 Marrakech, Morocco 2016: A focal issue is that of water scarcity, water cleanliness, and water-related sustainability, a major problem in the developing world, including many African states. 

Another focal issue was the need to reduce greenhouse emissions and utilize low-carbon energy sources. Peter Thomson, President of the UN General Assembly, called for the transformation of the global economy in all sectors to achieve a low emissions global economy.

COP 23 / CMP 13/CMA1-2  Bonn Germany 2017  Launched the logo for this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference, to be held at UN Campus, Bonn in November. This conference saw the launch of the Powering Past Coal Alliance

COP 24 / CMP14/CMA 1-3  Katowice  Poland 2018:  an opportunity for convincing other countries that Poland does not hamper the process of tackling dangerous climate change and that Poland is one of the leaders of this process

COP 25 /CMP 15/CMA2  Madrid   Spain 2019: Upon election as President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro withdrew Brazil from hosting the event.  Following the 2019 Chilean protests, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera announced Chile’s withdrawal from hosting the summit in late October 2019

COP 26 / CMP 16 / CMA 3 Glasgow, United Kingdom 2021: COP 26 was originally scheduled to take place from 9 to 19 November 2020, in Glasgow, United Kingdom, but was postponed to 31 October to 12 November 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Among other things, this conference led to the development of the Accelerating to Zero coalition to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles,[63] and the Glasgow Climate Pact to “phase down” the use of coal-fired power stations.  It worked on three goals: 1. Raise ambition at the national level but more importantly to spur immediate action and get started on reducing emissions; 2. Deliver on the 100 billion USD promise and stimulate the large-scale private finance needed to reach Paris agreement;  3. Encourage solutions that can reduce GHG emissions while also adapting to climate impacts like extreme weather events.

COP 27 /CMP 17 / CMA 4  Sharm El Sheikh,  Egypt  2022:  It led to an agreement on loss and damage, under which rich countries could compensate poor countries for damage caused by climate change.  Focus on three areas – Climate Adaptation;  Climate finance and transition that takes into account the development needs of countries, communities and groups most affected by the climate crisis.

2023:  COP 28/CMP 18/CMA 5,  UAE    The summit will be held at Expo City Dubai from November 30 until December 12, 2023

2024:  COP 29  Eastern Europe Group (TBC) :  The Czech Republic announced it was considering entering a bid to host the conference.   Bulgaria also expressed its desire to host COP 29. 

Composition of the Atmosphere:

The Earth’s atmosphere is the relatively thin layer of gases surrounding the planet – the atmosphere is held close to Earth by gravity (higher one goes away from the Earth’s surface, thinner the air).  Most scientists estimate around 100 km while describing where the atmosphere ends and space begins.  Three gases with the highest percentages in the atmosphere are:

Source:interenet

 Source:interenet

 Source:interenet

A wide variety of geochemical and ecological (fossil) evidence indicates that oxygen levels rose dramatically about two million years ago.  They further indicate that carbon dioxide levels were much higher in Earth’s history which allowed a habitable temperature.

 Source:interenet

The figure above reveals that Carbon dioxide and Methane underwent large, rapid variations over the past 400,000 years.  The current period of ice ages that we are in now began about 2.6 million years ago.  Changes in CO2 and CH4 were driven by changes in the Earth’s orbit and axis of rotation leading to changes in the amount of solar radiation received at various latitudes during various seasons.  Summer solar radiation at high northern latitudes is especially important because it regulates how the large northern hemisphere ice sheets grow.  Changes in solar radiation led to changes in Earth’s temperature, ocean circulation and other processes that influence atmospheric CO2 and CH4 which amplified changes in Earth’s temperature.

The Holocene period (about 12,000 years ago) saw the relative stability in climate and atmospheric gas concentrations – reveals that levels of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere were relatively constant – about 280 ppmv and 650 ppbv respectively. The sudden increase of these two and another greenhouse gas nitrous oxide rapidly about 200 years ago – coinciding with industrial revolution (anthropogenic activity – fossil fuel burning, enhanced deforestation and agriculture.  The increase in these three gases is considered responsible for warming of the earth by about 1⁰C over the past century.

It is however interesting to study the behaviour of carbon dioxide not only in the atmosphere but even otherwise.  With humidity in the air, carbon dioxide mixes with it to form carbonic acid.  Additional complications get triggered when it rains as it may wash out carbon dioxide.  But, many believe that there is a saturation point complicated by storms and weather systems.  It is believed that 99.83% of carbon dioxide remains as hydrated oxide and if the temperature did not rise with decreasing altitude (0.0065K/m0.0065K/m), solubility decreases.  The pH of natural rain is 5.6 because of dissolved CO2 and equilibrium concentration of H2CO3.  If all carbon dioxide gets converted to H2CO3, natural rain and soda water would be much more acidic (Carbonic acid is quite strong pKa=3.6).  Further, in crust areas, there is on-going reversible reaction – dissolving calcium carbonate by surface rain going down the soil and precipitating again in caves – Calcium bicarbonate comes to the surface water making the majority of calcium content.

A recent study published by Guardian (2023) suggested that more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets are worthless.  Many projects which have sold REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation) credits have failed to reduce deforestation.  As an example, if one is planning to fly from London to New York, one may consider buying REDD+ credits that promise to conserve rainforest in the Congo Basin.  Offsetting the return flight would appear to cost an affordable 16.44 pounds.  The finding that many REDD+ carbon credits have not delivered forest conservation is indeed worrying to those who care about the future of tropical forests.  Considering many other details, there are reasons to be cautious on the role of carbon offsets in combating climate change.

Aerosol particles influence radiative forcing directly through reflection and absorption of solar and infrared radiation in the atmosphere.  Some aerosols cause a positive forcing while other a negative forcing.  The direct radiative forcing summed over all aerosol types is negative.  Aerosols also cause a negative radiative forcing indirectly through the changes in cloud properties.

Surprisingly tropics accounted for nearly 97% of all global deforestation – annual rate of tree cover loss doubled from 6.7 Mha in 2001 to 11.3 Mha in 2022 (Brazil and Indonesia experienced the largest tree cover loss).  Tropical deforestation, (14,800 square miles of forest loss every year) accounts for 20% of annual GHG emissions.

CARBON NEUTRALITY:

Recent COP meetings especially 26 and 27 generated a lot of interest on not only decarbonisation but carbon neutrality (“calculating your total climate-damaging carbon emissions, reducing them where possible, and then balancing your remaining emissions, often by purchasing a carbon offset.”) as well.  Carbon dioxide makes up some 80% of the world’s greenhouse gases, but five others—nitrous oxide, hydro fluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and methane—also contribute. Limits on all six gases were called for by the Kyoto Protocol international climate treaty.

‘Zero Carbon’ is deemed to be impossible and ‘Carbon positive’ means you sequester more carbon emissions than you emit. On the ground, reductions can take place in building sector (low to no carbon emitting building designs) and move toward renewable.  It has however been noticed that these options involve number of trade-offs and are expensive, time consuming, disruptive and in many cases currently, impossible.  In a way and at one of time, one would inevitably reach a ‘Gap’ between carbon neutrality and financial/technological feasibility.  Before a claim on net-zero and benign force on the planet, we need a lot of work still to be completed.

In this process of carbon neutrality, every country is proclaiming the targets for carbon neutrality in a span of another 10-15 years.  Considering that the energy demand is likely to grow progressively, power generation becomes inevitable.  In such a paradoxical situation, the option for power generation lies with renewables (solar and wind).  Additionally, some are even experimenting with hydrogen as well.

CONCLUSION:

If one looks at the pace with which Kyoto Protocol was pronounced, everyone expected a speedy address on carbon dioxide emissions reduction.  However, we seem to be bringing the same context once again even in the recent COP meetings especially, 26^th and 27^th.   As has been brought out above, it is time to probe a little further into ‘Atmospheric Chemistry’ for a fairly a good understanding of the subject – Climate change.

A K Shyam 373 Canarabank Layout First Main 1st Cross Vidyaranyapura Post

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