Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell on Monday to kick off a shortened week of trading, with Wall Street keeping tabs on the Middle East war as well as rising trade tensions between Canada and the U.S.
Futures tied to the 30-stock averaged shed 308 points, or 0.6%. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2%. Nasdaq-100 futures bucked the trend, rising 0.1%. (U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.)
Oil prices rose to six-week highs on Monday night after Iran and the U.S. exchanged strikes over the weekend. Brent traded 1.1% higher at $97.31 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 1.3% to $92.66.
Crude prices have surged in the past month as the U.S.-Iran war continues, putting upward pressure on Treasury yields as traders grow worried that elevated energy prices will drive inflation higher.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield last week climbed to its highest level since November 2023, while the shorter-term 2-year note yield scaled to a January 2025 high.
“A run of central bank meetings over the coming weeks will test whether equity composure holds,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “Bond yields are also rising worldwide. The question is whether that reflects better-than-expected economic growth, higher-than-expected inflation, and/or looming fiscal debt crises.”
The Fed is due to hold a monetary policy meeting next week. Traders are pricing in a 60% chance the central bank will hike rates by a quarter-percentage point after the meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Those odds could change this week with wholesale and consumer inflation data due Thursday and Friday, respectively. They could also be impacted by another jump in oil prices as tensions in the Middle East continue to rise.
Traders also have to contend with brewing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada once again. Retaliatory tariffs from Canada on about $20 billion of U.S. goods take effect on Tuesday. President Donald Trump on Monday said ahead of the new duties that Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier can’t sell in the U.S. unless Canada begins making its products in the U.S.
“NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Bombardier can’t sell in U.S. unless it builds products there, Trump says
President Donald Trump on Monday said Bombardier, a Canadian airplane manufacturer, must build its products in the U.S. in order to keep selling in the American market.
The move comes amid a bitter trade war between the U.S. and Canada, and on the eve of retaliatory tariffs set to take effect Tuesday on a range of U.S. goods.
“NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
— Greg Iacurci
Treasurys are losing foreign appeal
Overseas investors now favor U.S. stocks over Treasurys in what strategists say is a historic shift, as foreign appetite for American sovereign debt appears to sour.
“For the first time ever outside of the GFC, equity inflows into the U.S. have overtaken fixed income,” George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note Thursday.
— Hugh Leask
