(Bloomberg) — Russia’s overseas crude shipments continued to plunge amid actual and threatened drone strikes in the Black Sea, falling to their lowest since late April.
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The decline deepened last week, when no crude cargoes were loaded at the key Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Shipments have now fallen for five straight weeks, with the drop over that period larger than in any comparable stretch since the start of the war in Ukraine.
In the four weeks through Aug. 16, exports fell to 3.58 million barrels a day, tanker-movements data compiled by Bloomberg show. Shipments had previously risen as Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s refineries left more crude available for export, but that increase is now unwinding.
A renewed wave of refinery strikes in recent weeks hasn’t produced the same boost, possibly because Kyiv has also targeted ships and ports used to export the crude.
One tanker that was moored at Novorossiysk’s Sheskharis oil terminal when it was attacked on Wednesday was still at the berth in satellite photos from Monday. Other berths at the port were brought back into use over the weekend.
The damage is also showing up in Russia’s crude oil production. Output fell to 8.89 million barrels a day last month, the lowest in six years, according to secondary source estimates published by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. That was nearly 1 million barrels a day below the country’s permitted production level under a long-running agreement with its OPEC+ allies.
Even after the recent plunge, however, Russia’s seaborne crude exports remain relatively high. Shipments in the latest four-week period are only just below their year-to-date average, while flows so far in 2026 are running well above the average for every year since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Crude Shipments
In the week to Aug. 16, some 31 tankers loaded 22.38 million barrels of Russian crude, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume compared with a revised 23.78 million barrels on 33 ships the previous week.
While Novorossiysk saw no shipments, loading operations at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga recovered to more normal levels.
Weekly shipments can be volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions, military activity and the timing of departures.
There were no shipments of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade from either Ust-Luga or Novorossiysk.
The amount of Russian crude at sea fell further in the week to Aug. 16, dropping to about 94 million barrels, the lowest since September. Lower shipments amid robust deliveries to India, which remained close to June’s record level of about 2.4 million barrels a day last month, drove the decrease.
Four cargoes of Urals crude remain at anchor off Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Mersa el-Hamra. Offloading delays have lengthened, with ships now typically at anchor there for about a month and a half before discharging, compared with less than a week at the start of the year.
Separately, most Murmansk-loading cargoes are being transferred onto other vessels in the Riau archipelago, east of Singapore, often after sitting at anchor for weeks. Many of those transfers have taken place with one or both of the ships involved hiding their positions, making it more difficult to track the shipments through the transfers.
Meanwhile, cargoes of Sokol and Sakhalin Blend crude from Russia’s far east may wait for weeks to be moved from shuttle tankers onto ocean-going ships. Some cargoes of flagship ESPO are also idling for weeks near the main Pacific port of Kozmino after loading.
Export Value
On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports was little changed at $1.71 billion a week in the 28 days to Aug. 16, down by $10 million a week from the revised figure for the period to Aug. 9. The drop in crude flows was largely offset by higher prices for Russia’s crudes, with benchmark Urals rising by about $3 a barrel to an eight-week high on the four-week average measure.
On this basis, the export prices of Russia’s Urals loaded in the Baltic were up by about $3.30 to $67.08 a barrel, while a $3.20 a barrel increase took Black Sea prices to $65.85 a barrel. The price of Pacific ESPO crude rose by a more modest $0.80 to average $70.45 a barrel. Delivered prices in India rose for a fourth week, up by $5 to $88.34 a barrel. All prices are based on daily numbers from Argus Media.
On a weekly basis, the value of exports fell by about $10 million, declining for a third week to $1.54 billion in the seven days to Aug. 16, with a drop in flows more than offsetting higher prices.
Flows by Destination
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, slipped to 3.43 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Aug. 16, down from a revised 3.54 million in the period to Aug. 9.
While the amount of Russian crude on tankers showing destinations in India continues to show sharp declines in the most recent weeks, the volume on vessels yet to show a final destination has soared, allowing for that pattern to be reversed in time. Tankers frequently show interim destinations, such as Suez or Port Sudan, until they are well across the Arabian Sea, while some never show a final calling point, even after mooring to discharge.
Flows on tankers signaling Chinese ports stood at 1.22 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 16, down from a revised 1.3 million barrels a day for the period to Aug. 9. About 670,000 barrels a day was on tankers destined for India, down from 1.11 million barrels a day in the earlier period. On recent trends, that number is likely to be revised up to more than 2 million barrels a day once the recently loaded tankers start to arrive.
The equivalent of about 1.54 million barrels a day on vessels have yet to show a final destination. Of that, about 1.3 million barrels a day is on ships from Russia’s western ports showing their destination as Singapore, Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 240,000 barrels a day are on tankers yet to signal any destination.
Flows to Turkey in the period to Aug. 16 slipped to about 80,000 barrels a day, down from a recent high of 180,000 barrels a day for the period to July 26.
Flows to Syria averaged about 40,000 barrels a day, unchanged from the period to Aug. 9. But this figure could be revised once ship destinations become clear. Tankers hauling Russian crude to Syria rarely signal their destination and usually disappear from automated tracking systems when they’re south of Crete, making it difficult to estimate flows in advance of ships arriving off the port of Baniyas, where they can often be picked up on satellite photos.
Shipments to Egypt averaged about 30,000 barrels a day in the four-week period, half the level seen during the 28 days to Aug. 9.
NOTES
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, Aug. 25.
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd. and satellite imagery covering Russian ports.
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.
–With assistance from Sherry Su.
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