- The latest developments in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran have Kalshi traders thinking that gas prices will remain elevated for a longer period of time.
- They now place a 75% chance gas prices on Nov. 3 will be above $3.50 per gallon, and 39% odds that prices will be higher than $3.75.
- Before the U.S.-Iran war, gas prices were below $3, according to AAA.
On Thursday, the national average of gas prices was at $3.84, according to AAA, up 5 cents from the day prior. The rise comes as U.S. oil prices rose as high as $75 per barrel on Wednesday, up from around $68 per barrel on Monday. However, WTI eased to below $72 per barrel on Thursday.
While traders on Kalshi think gas prices will remain higher for longer, they also don’t see them returning to new highs. They give just a 43% chance gas prices cross $4.60 this year, although that’s up from about a one-in-three chance before the U.S. and Iran began hostilities again.
The high for gas prices in 2026 was on May 21, when the average hit $4.56. Before the war with Iran began, the national average for U.S. gas prices was below $3 per gallon.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
