(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees two-sided risks to oil prices as a slump in demand competes with supply losses from the Middle East because of the Iran war.
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April oil sales data from China and Western Europe jointly imply about 2 million barrels a day of downside risk to the bank’s “already low” demand estimates for the month, analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note dated May 31. That adds about $10 a barrel of downside risk to a forecast of Brent crude prices of $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
The global oil market has been upended by the Iran war, with shipments from Persian Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz cut to a trickle — leading to the shut-in of millions of barrels of production. The Brent benchmark has rallied more than a quarter since the start of the conflict in late February, leading to demand destruction, especially for jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks.
“We see significant upside price risks from potentially more persistent Mideast supply losses but also meaningful price downside from weaker demand,” the Goldman analysts said. “Actual end-use oil demand may have fallen more in response to higher prices than expected.”
China’s oil imports are set to drop to levels not seen since the pandemic, as the war reveals the extent to which demand has disappeared and may not be coming back. The world’s biggest crude importer may have inbound shipments of just 10.9 million barrels a day this year, according to London-based consultancy Energy Aspects Ltd.
Brent futures traded near $93 a barrel on Monday after closing at a six-week low on Friday amid optimism for a peace deal between the US and Iran.
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