Goldman Sachs believes that a recent nuclear power deal with Meta could boost shares of Vistra. The bank upgraded the integrated retail electricity and power generation company to a buy rating from neutral. Analyst Carly Davenport’s price target of $205, up from $200, implies that shares of Vistra could soar 40%. Vistra stock has slipped 16% over the past 12 months and are down 11% on the year. Davenport wrote that she was more constructive on Vistra following this pullback in shares and now believes that the stock’s valuation is near trough levels. VST 1Y mountain VST 1Y chart As a catalyst, the analyst pointed to the recent power purchase agreement made between Vistra and Facebook parent Meta, which she said has increased her 2027 EBITDA estimates by 5%. “In our view, the Meta deal signaled that the company is able to secure sizeable PPA contracts with a shorter ramp, even in the face of continued policy uncertainty and affordability rhetoric,” Davenport wrote. “Before Meta’s PPA, Vistra had only announced one other PPA with an undisclosed hyperscaler for half of Comanche Peak’s nuclear generation (1.2GW) and minor impact to EBITDA (~1% increase to 2028E) given the ramp time expected by the company.” With Vistra having contracted roughly half of its nuclear fleet through power purchasing agreements, the analyst sees ample room for upside from additional deals. “It still has a sizeable ~3.1 GW left to contract: 1,872 MW from units I and II of its Beaver Valley facility in PA and 1,200 MW from the remaining Comanche Peak unit,” she wrote. “We estimate an additional 3-9% impact on 2028 EBITDA if the remaining nuclear fleet gets contracted, assuming an $85-$100/MWh range for PPA power price as we estimated in the past and depending on the contract terms of power delivery.” Davenport added that the company still has around 28 gigawatts of natural gas generation. This could also be contracted to hyperscalers, introducing even more upside for the stock. The analyst also emphasized a bullish backdrop for Vistra. “Finally, we remain constructive on the fundamentals of the existing business, with current volume hedging levels, retail operations and capacity revenues lowering volatility of the business,” she wrote.
Goldman Sachs upgrades this energy stock on Meta nuclear power deal, sees 40% upside
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