Forecasting Ecopetrol’s Future: Scenario-Based Financial Outlook Through 2029
In this latest article, I present a detailed financial forecast for Ecopetrol under three growth scenarios—Bear (6.5% CAGR), Base (13.05% CAGR), and Bull (17.5% CAGR). The analysis models revenue, CapEx, EBITDA, D&A, net income, and free cash flow to help stakeholders understand the strategic and financial implications of each path.
Key takeaways include:
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The impact of CapEx scaling on profitability and cash flow
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Margin sensitivity across scenarios
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Strategic trade-offs between reinvestment and financial resilience
This framework is designed to support capital planning, valuation modeling, and scenario stress-testing in today’s dynamic oil and gas environment.
I welcome feedback and discussion from the Energy Central community—how do you see companies like Ecopetrol navigating volatile market conditions while investing in future growth?
