Latin America’s Oil Demand: A Transition Toward Moderate Growth
This article explores recent oil demand trends across Latin America, focusing on December 2024 data and looking ahead through 2025 and 2026. While the region saw a year-on-year decline of 83 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in December—driven largely by Brazil and Venezuela—other countries like Argentina and Colombia posted modest gains.
Product-level data reveals that residual fuel and ethanol saw the sharpest drops, while diesel and gasoline also declined but to a lesser extent. Demand for jet fuel and LPG remained flat, and naphtha reversed previous gains.
Despite this short-term dip, the near-term economic outlook is broadly positive. Brazil is benefiting from low inflation and growing consumer demand, while Argentina shows early signs of recovery. Seasonal agricultural activity is expected to lift diesel consumption, and rising air travel signals potential strength in jet fuel demand.
Looking ahead, oil demand in the region is forecast to grow by an average of 142 tb/d in 2025 and 126 tb/d in 2026. Transportation fuels—gasoline, diesel, and jet/kerosene—will remain the primary growth drivers, supported by favorable ethanol-gasoline price dynamics and strong industrial and agricultural activity.
As economic fundamentals stabilize, Latin America’s oil demand is projected to rise steadily, reaching an average of 7.1 million barrels per day by 2026.
