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Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are often referred to as the “canaries in the coal mine” vis-à-vis global warming. Their low-lying and geographically isolated nature makes them particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and ocean acidification. For instance, countries like Kiribati, the Maldives, and Tuvalu face immediate threats to their freshwater supplies, agricultural lands, and overall habitability. The struggles and early experiences of these nations serve as a warning for the broader global community, emphasizing the urgent need for climate action.
The Economic Exclusion Zones (EEZs) of the SIDS, which account for approximately 30% of the tropical ocean’s surface, present a significant opportunity for economic development. Some potential funding sources and strategies that can help the SIDS monetize their EEZs: are Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture, Renewable Energy Development, Marine Tourism and Recreation, Seabed Mining and Mineral Extraction From the Oceans, Marine Biotechnology and a Blue Economy, Maritime Trade and Services, and International Collaboration and Policy.
All these strategies require a balanced approach to maximize economic benefits while preserving environmental and social well-being. By developing comprehensive blue economy strategies and fostering international partnerships, SIDS can transform their vast EEZs into engines of sustainable growth.
With such a wide range of opportunities available, it can be difficult to prioritize but in this regard Richard Smalley’s Terawatt Challenge can serve as a valuable example. The Terawatt Challenge focuses on rapidly scaling clean energy to replace fossil fuels, limit global warming, and meet the increasing energy demands around the world. By addressing the clean energy challenge, we can also tackle the next nine priorities: water, food, environment, poverty, terrorism and war, disease, education, democracy, and population, Smalley surmised.
Additionally, the Middle East provides an instructive example with its futuristic metropolises that feature world-class hotels, shopping, and entertainment, none of which would have existed without the region’s energy resources.
An EEZ is a zone prescribed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea over which a state has special rights regarding the exploration and use of marine resources, including energy production from water and wind, up to 200 nautical miles from its coast. SIDS collectively manage millions of square kilometers of ocean space, and Pacific SIDS for example alone control vast EEZs that far exceed their land masses.
The 39 SIDS collectively have an estimated total population of approximately 65 million people, accounting for slightly less than 1% of the world’s population. There average population is therefore approximately 1.67 million people. But these populations vary significantly. For instance, Niue has a population of only 1,269, while Haiti, ~11.7 million, Cuba ~11.1 million and the Dominican Republic ~11 million make up over half of the total. And these three Caribbean states are all recognized by the United Nations as part of the SIDS.
Such diverse demographic landscapes influence the unique social, economic, and environmental challenges of the SIDS.
Due to their limited size and resources, many SIDS have historically relied heavily on imported fossil fuels, leading to high electricity costs and vulnerability to external energy market fluctuations. Several have set ambitious targets and have made notable progress toward increasing their renewable energy capacity. For example, the Pacific SIDS such as Fiji, Vanuatu, and the Solomon Islands have committed to achieving 100% renewable energy by 2030. And between 2014 and 2022 the Pacific region increased its renewable energy capacity by 30%.
The African nation of Mauritius indicates it could achieve a renewable energy target of 76.8% by 2040. But generally, the SIDS continue to face challenges such as the high upfront costs of renewable energy infrastructure, technological limitations, the need for capacity building, international support and investment to help them with their renewable energy goals and enhance their energy independence.
Ocean energy resources in SIDS EEZs include:
- Wave Energy: SIDS’ extensive coastlines and oceanic surroundings make them ideal for capturing wave energy. Technologies like oscillating water columns and point absorbers can be deployed to harness this energy.
- Tidal Energy: Many SIDS have tidal ranges suitable for tidal energy generation. Tidal streams and barrages can be used to convert tidal movements into electricity.
- OTEC: This technology exploits the temperature difference between warm surface water and cooler deep water. SIDS in tropical regions are particularly well-suited for OTEC due to the consistent temperature gradients.
- Offshore Wind Energy: Although more established in regions like Europe, offshore wind has potential in SIDS, particularly where wind patterns are strong and consistent.
These sources potentially could foster energy independence, sustainability, and economic development and developing ocean energy resources can create jobs, stimulate technology transfer, and boost local economies.
The challenges and considerations with respect to these aims are technical and financial barriers, environmental impacts, policy and regulation. And strong governance frameworks are necessary to manage and regulate the balanced development of ocean energy resources.
Examples of the advancement in these areas include the Pacific Community Initiatives which supports Pacific SIDS in exploring and developing ocean energy resources through research, capacity building, and policy development. And the Caribbean Renewable Energy Development Programme, which aims to enhance the use of renewable energy in Caribbean SIDS.
The combined EEZs of SIDS offer a substantial opportunity for developing ocean energy resources and by leveraging these resources they can advance towards energy independence, economic development, and environmental sustainability. However, realizing this potential requires overcoming financial, technical, and regulatory challenges through international cooperation, investment, and innovation.
Ranking the SIDS’ ocean technologies according to their economic potential, feasibility, scalability, and environmental impact they are:
- OTEC emerges as the most promising option. It offers long-term energy independence, provides base-load energy, and is particularly effective in tropical waters, making it especially suitable for SIDS. Additionally, when configured with a deep-water condenser design, OTEC can cool the ocean surface, which helps mitigate sea level rise and reduces the impact of storm surges. However, the technology face challenges, such as high initial infrastructure investment costs and the need for large-scale deployment to become cost-effective. Problems that are mitigated by a deep-water condenser design like Thermodynamic Geoengineering (TG) that improves the Carnot efficiency of the method by 2.5 times, meaning it generates 2.5 times more energy for every dollar invested, and it is at least 30% cheaper due to the shrinkage of the mass of the components. In summary it would be highly beneficial for all SIDS regions.
- Offshore wind energy is ideal for immediate deployment in SIDS due to its proven technology, scalability, and decreasing costs. It can be integrated into existing power grids more quickly than other ocean-based energy sources. Nonetheless, it has challenges, such as the requirement for steady winds, which tend to be stronger in more temperate regions rather than in most of the SIDS regions. Additionally, the upfront costs for floating offshore wind farms in deep waters are high.
- Wave and tidal energy technologies utilize less space than solar farms and offer predictable energy production, unlike solar and wind. However, these technologies also face challenges, including high maintenance costs due to ocean corrosion and feasibility limits to areas with strong tides or consistent wave action, such as Mauritius, Fiji, and Tonga.
- Deep-sea mining has significant potential for economic growth, but it is a controversial subject. Rich deposits of rare earth minerals, which are essential for batteries and electronics, can be found in deep-sea regions. And the oceans contain an array of dissolved minerals and metals that could support a renewable energy transition. For example, thirty-one thousand one gigawatt deep-water OTEC plants could circulate the total volume of the oceans through their heat exchangers in about 350 years. When looking at recoverable minerals, the United States Geological Survey estimated that there are around 870 million tonnes of recoverable copper reserves on land, but there are about 2 million tonnes of copper dissolved in the oceans—an astonishing 2,300% more.
These minerals and metals could create a substantial new revenue stream for the SIDS, but there are environmental concerns regarding the potential damage to deep-sea ecosystems. These risks though are dubious when it comes to passing seawater through heat exchangers. The regulatory uncertainty surrounding the UN’s laws that limit extraction in international waters might not apply since 100,000 ships currently operate in the oceans and a ship like an aircraft carriers, can flow 170,000 gallons per minute through its cooling system during full-power operations.
- Blue Carbon and Marine Biotechnology would be good for the SIDS with respect to climate resilience. Mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs naturally capture CO₂ and this activity can be monetized through carbon credits. In this regard, TG would cool the surface and at scale could sequester 430 gigatons of CO2 annually. At a notional credit cost of $100/per ton this would be $430 billion a year. Since the SIDS control 30% of the tropical EEZs where such activity could take place, this would be an annual increase of $129 billion to their collective GDP which is almost 10 times their current $13.7 average GDP according to the United Nations Development Programme.
Marine biotech for pharmaceuticals from coral reef organisms is also an emerging industry. The research and development in marine biotechnology is challenging requiring expertise and strong governance of carbon credit markets.
Technical barriers
Ocean energy technologies, particularly OTEC, are not yet widely commercialized and remain in the developmental or pilot stages. They face significant technical challenges, such as efficiency and durability. While the initial costs are high, these can be greatly reduced through scaling; therefore, Small Island Developing States would need to pool their resources to benefit from cost savings.
Many SIDS lack the necessary infrastructure to support large-scale renewable energy projects, including ports, power grids, and maintenance facilities, which are essential for deploying and maintaining ocean energy systems.
Additionally, the economies of SIDS are often small and reliant on a limited number of industries, such as tourism and fisheries. This reliance restricts their capacity to invest in and develop new sectors like renewable energy on a large scale. Unlike fossil fuels, which benefit from established global markets and economies of scale, renewable energy projects in SIDS tend to be small-scale and localized, making it challenging to achieve cost competitiveness.
The Environmental and Social Considerations of OTEC: (THE CONVENTIONAL NOTION AND Its Rebuttal -Based on the Scientific Literature in italics)
1. Water Withdrawal and Discharge:
- Large-Scale Water Movement: A 100-megawatt OTEC facility could circulate between 10 to 20 billion gallons of seawater daily. This significant volume of water movement may alter local oceanographic conditions, potentially impacting marine habitats and the distribution of species.
- Whereas conventional OTEC transfer heat as the sensible heat of water, the Canadian (TG) technology conveys a latent heat of a working fluid in a closed cycle heat pipe to a depth of 1,000 meters from where it returns by diffusion at a rate of 4 meters a year through the bottom 900 meters and 1 meter a day through the mixed layer for a total of about 226 years. A 100-mega plant would diffuse 200 cubic meters of water (52834 gallons) 4/365 =~ .01 meters a day for a total of about 528 gallons a day, thus minimal marine impact.
- Upwelling of Nutrient-Rich Waters: OTEC operations involve bringing cold, nutrient-rich deep water to the surface. This process can stimulate phytoplankton growth, which may lead to algal blooms that could disrupt local ecosystems and affect water quality.
- By the same reasoning above, the upwelling rate for TG is 528/20,000,000,000 or 5 order less, therefore there would be effectively zero disruption of local ecosystems or affected water quality.
- Impact on Ichthyoplankton: The intake of large volumes of seawater poses a risk of entraining and harming small marine organisms, such as fish eggs and larvae. This could have cascading effects on fish populations and broader marine food webs.
- TG is able to use twice the volume of water in its heat exchangers because they are contiguous to their heat and cold water sources. Therefore there is half the risk of entertainment. Hydroelectric dams likewise impact small aquatic organisms through entrainment and impingement but most of this injury and mortality is due to mechanical contact with turbine blades, rapid pressure changes, and other hydraulic forces, which are minimized with TG, which passes water through its heat exchangers at a rate of only 2 knots..
4. Alteration of Ocean Temperature Profiles:
- Thermal Discharges: Discharging used seawater at different temperatures can modify local thermal structures, potentially affecting temperature-sensitive marine species and altering ecological balances.
- As above TG produces half the temperature drop through its heat exchangers as a typical OTEC system. With a temperature of 26 degrees Celsius between a sea surface temperature (SST) of 30 degrees and a deepwater temperature of 4 degrees the maximum temperature drop through heat exchangers would be 3.25 degrees. Cooling studies have observed that within a 300 km radius of a cyclone’s center SSTs can decrease by an average of approximately 0.46°C but in extreme cases this can be has high as 6 °C and there are reports of this effecting marine life. But the total effect of global warming is only about 500 degrees, which is withing the range of a single large cyclone of which 80 to 90 named tropical cyclones form worldwide each year. Therefore, the effect of TG thermal discharge would be about 2 orders less than the natural status quo.
- Carbon Dioxide Release: Deep seawater contains dissolved carbon dioxide. When this water is brought to the surface during OTEC processes, some CO₂ may be released into the atmosphere, contributing to greenhouse gas concentrations. However, emissions are significantly lower compared to fossil fuel power plants.
- TG brings minimal water to the surface. It does however displace about 0.8 watts per square meter of average global surface heat from the surface of the ocean to deep, which reverses of the offgassing of CO2 from ocean to the atmosphere.
6. Disruption of Ocean Currents:
- Potential Impact on Circulation Patterns: Large-scale OTEC deployment could influence ocean circulation, potentially affecting climate patterns and marine ecosystems on a broader scale.
- To deliver 31 TWyr of power with conventional OTEC, about 62,000,000 m3/s of cold water would have to be transferred from 1,000 m to near the surface, which is 62 Sv. Meanwhile, the thermohaline circulation, the global conveyor belt is only 15 Sv. TG, would diffuse water from a depth of 1,000 meters 4.4 times (1,000 years/226 years) at a rate of 62,000,000m3/(226years*365days*24hrs*60mins*60secs)) or about .0008 Sv, which is essentially zero impact on ocean currents.
7. Habitat Modification:
- Artificial Reef Effects: OTEC infrastructure may create new habitats, potentially altering existing marine communities and ecosystems. While this could enhance biodiversity in some cases, it may also lead to unintended ecological consequences.
- TG systems are mobile therefore would provide very little artificial reef effect.
Financial hurdles
OTEC plants require a significant upfront investment, often amounting to billions of dollars. This high cost makes it challenging for SIDS to finance large-scale projects without external support from foreign investors. Many SIDS depend on funding from international financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which may impose restrictions preventing the formation of cartels as would be necessary for the SIDS to effectively monetize their geographic advantage.
Major powers, including the United States, China, and the European Union, may resist any efforts by SIDS to control OTEC markets, viewing ocean energy as part of their strategic interests. However, soft powers like Great Britain and Canada, which are advocates of influencing global affairs through diplomacy, culture, values, and economic engagement rather than military force, play a crucial role in shaping global climate policy and therefore are more likely to be responsive to a SIDS’ OTEC effort. For example, Mark Carney, the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, as well as the UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance and the current Prime Minister of Canada, has actively worked to mobilize substantial financial resources for climate initiatives. In April 2021, Carney announced the formation of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), uniting over 160 financial institutions with combined assets exceeding $70 trillion. The alliance aims to accelerate the transition to a net-zero emissions economy by 2050.
By November 2021, during the COP26 climate conference, GFANZ’s commitments had grown to encompass over $130 trillion in private capital dedicated to transforming the economy for net-zero emissions. And Canada introduced the Global Adaptation Investment Alliance (GAIA) at Baku, Azerbaijan, and the year before at COP28 had announced a $16 million contribution to the startup costs of a global fund aimed at addressing loss and damage in developing countries. However, as reported by The Guardian, banks, asset managers, and industry groups began to accommodate former President Trump’s anti-net-zero stance, which has faced considerable criticism from scientists, environmentalists, and international leaders. Furthermore, by abandoning the net-zero field, the United States simply abandons the field to China which is making remarkable strides in the renewable energy sector and is positioning itself as a global leader through rapid expansion and substantial investments.
Climate change mitigation will be a sea going battle and as of 2023, U.S. shipyards accounted for approximately 0.1% to 0.2% of the world’s commercial shipbuilding market, whereas in the 1970s, the U.S. produced about 5% of the world’s oceangoing commercial ships. In contrast, China has emerged as the dominant force in shipbuilding, constructing over 50% of global commercial tonnage.
Institutional Hurdles
Unlike the OPEC cartel, which is dominated by a few key oil producers, SIDS are geographically dispersed and possess varied national interests, making coordinated action challenging.
Potential Solutions for the SIDS are:
1. Strategic Alliances: Form a global OTEC Consortium instead of a cartel. Such a consortium would focus on joint technology development and market expansion rather than imposing price controls.
2. International Financial Institutions :
- The World Bank offers various funding programs aimed at sustainable development and can assist with projects related to fisheries, marine resources, and renewable energy within EEZs.
- The International Monetary Fund provides financial assistance and advice for economic stabilization, which can indirectly benefit EEZ development.
3. Regional Development Banks:
- The Asian Development Bank supports projects in Pacific island countries, including initiatives for marine and coastal resource management.
- The African Development Bank offers funding for African island nations to develop their EEZs, focusing on sustainable economic growth.
- The Inter-American Development Bank assists Caribbean SIDS with funding for marine economy projects.
- The Asian Development Bank has demonstrated a commitment to exploring and supporting OTEC initiatives, which could significantly benefit SIDS. In 2014 it published a detailed report assessing the potential of wave energy conversion and OTEC in its developing member countries. This study evaluated the feasibility of harnessing ocean-based renewable energy sources, highlighting the promise of OTEC for sustainable electricity generation in regions with suitable ocean thermal gradients.
4. Bilateral Aid and Partnerships:
- Government Aid: Countries such as Japan, Australia, and various European nations often provide bilateral aid for sustainable development projects in SIDS.
- Public-Private Partnerships: Collaborations between governments and private companies can provide funding and expertise for developing industries like fisheries, tourism, and renewable energy within EEZs.
5. Non-Governmental Organizations and Foundations:
- Numerous NGOs and international foundations focus on marine conservation and sustainable development, offering both funding and expertise. Notable examples include the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which support innovative development projects.
Legal barriers
- Patent and Licensing Restrictions – OTEC technologies are primarily developed by countries such as the U.S., Japan, and France, which means that the SIDS would likely need to license these technologies rather than having full control over them. It must be noted here the Canadian TG intellectual property, a METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR LOAD BALANCING TRAPPED SOLAR ENERGY has been abandoned for lack of interest.
- Energy Diplomacy and Competition Major powers, including the U.S., China, and the EU, may oppose any efforts by SIDS to take control of OTEC markets, viewing ocean energy as part of their strategic interests.
- Fragmentation Among SIDS – Unlike OPEC, which is dominated by a few key oil producers, SIDS are geographically dispersed and possess varying national interests, making coordinated action challenging.
Potential Solutions for SIDS
1. Strategic Alliances – Instead of forming a cartel, SIDS could establish a global OTEC consortium that focuses on joint technology development and market expansion, rather than price controls.
2. Legal Innovations – The SIDS can negotiate new regional agreements that recognize OTEC as a valuable resource under their control.
3. Technology Ownership – They can invest in research and development that can create their own OTEC technology, reducing reliance on foreign patents.
4. Green Energy Certification – Develop a global certification system for sustainable OTEC energy that can enhance its market value. Although creating an “OPEC of OTEC” presents legal and structural challenges, SIDS can still play a significant role in the blue energy economy by strategically leveraging their vast ocean resources.
- Market Development – The global market for ocean energy is still in a developmental stage, lacking a cohesive international framework or organization similar to OPEC for renewable energy.
- Community Engagement Successful deployment of renewable energy projects necessitates community support and engagement. This can be difficult if local populations view the projects as disruptive or not aligned with their needs.
Conclusion
For the SIDS to fully harness their ocean energy potential and become leaders in renewable energy, several essential steps must be taken:
1. Investment in Research and Development – Prioritize advancements in ocean energy technologies to achieve commercial viability.
2. Capacity Building – Cultivate local expertise and infrastructure to support renewable energy projects effectively.
3. International Collaboration – Form partnerships with developed nations, international organizations, and private investors to obtain funding and technical support.
4. Policy Development – Create comprehensive policies and regulatory frameworks that encourage investment and development in renewable energy. By addressing these key challenges, SIDS can better position themselves to utilize their ocean energy resources, thereby contributing to global renewable energy initiatives and enhancing their energy independence and economic resilience.
As the canaries in the global warming coalmine, it behooves the SIDS to make every effort to improve their lot and it behooves the rest of us to do everything we can to assist them. It is in both of our interests.
