As the price of gas and LNG becomes a key factor for the value of the world’s energy, we have decided to bring in a top gas expert to explain where the market is and how is it going to evolve.
Seb Kennedy is a leading market analyst and Founding Editor of Energy Flux (www.EnergyFlux.news), an independent newsletter that analyses global gas and LNG markets through the lens of Europe’s energy transition.
We review the numerous phases that the market has faced since the beginning of the decade, COVID, post COVID, Russia-Ukraine. We delve into the incredible expansion of US Exports capacity, with 8 terminals now operational and a forecasted growth of another 50% by the end of the decade.
We analyse how the market is inherently volatile, which make long term investment difficult but still inside a band. If the LNG gets too high, then consumers will switch; if it gets too low, then some capacity will be shelved. We focus on Qatar, the world’s lowest cost producer, which will continue to grow no matter what.
Seb anticipates a surplus in the coming years with massive extra capacities coming on the market from USA and Qatar. But the role of Iran and Russia, which hold the largest reserves, remain a huge uncertainty. Europe’s attitude towards LNG is a complex web of contradictions, between decarbonisation, security and affordability of supply, and global geopolitics.
In conclusion, a strategic source of energy, but difficult to apprehend.
