Dow jumps 300 points, S&P 500 touches record high after Trump pushes for low rates, oil: Live updates

Bullishness among individual investors over the outlook for stocks in the next six months rebounded to 43.4% in the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey, the highest since early December.

The percentage of bearish investors fell to 29.4%, down from 40.6% in the prior survey and the lowest since mid-November, immediately after the Nov. 5 presidential election.

Contrarian investors view rising bullishness as a bearish sign for the market, thinking it means that most investors have finished buying and have less cash available on the sidelines for new purchases. Conversely, growing bearishness is regarded by contrarians who like to bet against the crowd as a bullish market signal.

Last week’s AAII weekly survey showed more investors were fearful of the outlook and just 25.4% of respondents expected stocks to rise over the next six months.

— Scott Schnipper

Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading:

• Alcoa — Alcoa’s shares fell about 4% after CEO William Oplinger said on Wednesday that U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports would increase the cost of aluminum by $1.5 billion to $2 billion a year, and that increasing the cost of trade with Canada and Mexico would hurt the domestic supply chain and automotive market. Alcoa is the largest U.S. aluminum producer.
• American Airlines — Shares dropped 8% after the airline offered a disappointing first-quarter outlook. The company said it expects an adjusted loss of 20 cents to 40 cents per share. Analysts polled by LSEG had anticipated a loss of 4 cents per share.
• Elevance Health — Shares of the health insurance company rose 1.3% after Elevance beat fourth-quarter expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings of $3.84 per share on revenue of $45 billion, just beating the FactSet consensus call of $3.81 per share on revenue of $44.92 billion.

For the full list, read here.

— Pia Singh

Shares of Electronic Arts tumbled nearly 17% in midday trading, on pace for the worst percentage drop for the stock since Oct. 31, 2008, when it closed down 17.85%.

The video game publisher lowered its fiscal third-quarter and full-year guidance for net bookings after the bell Wednesday. The company expects about $2.215 billion in net bookings for the quarter, versus previous guidance of $2.4 billion to $2.55 billion. It anticipates net bookings of between $7 billion and $7.15 billion for the full fiscal year, below previous guidance of $7.5 billion to $7.8 billion.

Electronic Arts cited underperforming games, notably its soccer franchise, for the shortfall.

— Michelle Fox, Kif Leswig

Traders should be ready for stocks to struggle next week after the Federal Reserve meeting, according to James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research.

Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 99% likelihood that the central bank holds interest rates steady at its policy meeting next week, according to CMEGroup’s FedWatch Tool. Demmert warned that, paired with earnings reports of megacap technology companies, could catalyze a leg down in the market.

“The stock market is in a calm before the storm mode, as we await next week’s Federal Reserve press conference and big tech earnings, both of which are likely to cause market volatility,” Demmert said.

“Stocks are approaching their prior December highs, after some choppiness over the past four weeks, and while we are encouraged by the market’s strength, we’re not out of this corrective phase,” he explained. “We expect more downside pressure in stocks as the Federal Reserve meets next week and extinguishes investor expectations about cutting rates anytime soon.”

— Alex Harring

Caterpillar shares were up 2.5%, hitting their high of the day and leading the Dow to a gain of more than 200 points. The industrial giant contributed 65 points to the Dow’s advance.

It wasn’t clear what drove the stock higher, but the move came after President Trump said he would approve the building of power plants for artificial intelligence through emergency declaration.

— Fred Imbert

Technology stocks underperformed on Thursday, dragging down the Nasdaq Composite.

The tech-heavy index slid 0.2% on Thursday, relinquishing some gains after jumping more than 1% in the prior session. By comparison, the S&P 500 ticked higher in Thursday’s session.

Speaking to global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Donald Trump said he would pressure the Federal Reserve to push rates lower.

“I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately,” Trump said. “And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us all over.”

The comments come ahead of the Fed’s first meeting of 2025 next week. The central bank is largely expected to keep rates unchanged, but questions abound about the path of future monetary policy.

— Fred Imbert

The iShares Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) climbed 2.4% Thursday to hit a fresh all-time high, surpassing its prior record from November 2024.

The fund, which is up more than 8% in January, is on pace for its best monthly performance since October 2022, when it gained 17.6%.

GE Aerospace is among the stocks leading the ETF higher for the day. The stock is up 9% Thursday after posting a quarterly earnings beat.

— Hakyung Kim, Nick Wells

Dollar and gold options have emerged as a hedge in the current market landscape, according to JPMorgan.

There’s “little evidence” of hedges like options or short equities in the U.S. equity space, though investors are looking for ways to ride out any volatility, JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou told clients. Rather, he said traders are turning to options in the currency and metal space as ways to protect their portfolios.

“There appears to be some evidence of investors using options on the dollar and gold as hedges against drawdowns in risky assets,” he told clients in a Wednesday note.

— Alex Harring

Ahead of quarterly Apple’s earnings report on Jan. 30, Goldman Sachs maintained its buy rating despite its recent stock weakness.

Shares are currently down 11% in 2025, on track for their worst month since Dec. 2022.

“In our view, the underperformance in 2025 is driven by a post-holiday inventory digestion ahead of weak seasonal period for the stock (January April), which coincides with seasonally negative supply chain data points,” analyst Michael Ng wrote in a Thursday note.

Meanwhile, Ng inched down his price target on shares to $280 from $286.

Ng forecasts the soft start to the year to reverse by mid-2025 with the launches of new Mac, iPad and iPhone SE products in the spring, as well as potentially new product features in the iPhone 17 launch in the fall.

“Competition has intensified within the Chinese smartphone market, but we’re encouraged by the potential for accelerating iPhone growth in F2026 driven by new product innovation for iPhone 17/18 and the continued rollout of Apple Intelligence to new markets with a more robust feature set,” Ng added.

— Hakyung Kim

Goldman Sachs is confident the Walt Disney Company can beat earnings expectations when it reports results next month, driven by strong performance in its movie and sports businesses.

Analyst Michael Ng reiterated a buy rating on the media and entertainment conglomerate, saying that it is a “high quality EPS compounder” with an “undemanding valuation.” He sees a pathway for Disney to outperform over the next three years.

“We expect DIS to deliver an EPS beat in F1Q25 with EPS of $1.57 (v. Visible Alpha consensus of $1.45) with EBIT of $4.69 bn (v. $4.49 bn consensus),” Ng wrote Wednesday. “By segment, we forecast Experiences EBIT of $2.89 bn (v. $2.98 bn consensus), Entertainment EBIT of $1.66 bn (v. $1.49 bn consensus), and Sports EBIT of $151 mn (v. $17 mn consensus).”

His 12-month price target of $139, raised slightly from $137 previously, implies greater than 27% upside for the stock from Wednesday’s close. Disney shares are down more than 2% this year.

— Sarah Min

Initial unemployment insurance claims edged higher last week while continuing claims hit their highest level in more than three years.

First-time benefits filings totaled a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the week ending Jan. 18, up 6,000 from the previous week and close to the Dow Jones estimate for 221,000.

However, ongoing claims, which run a week behind, rose to just shy of 1.9 million, an increase of 46,000 that took them to their highest level since Nov. 13, 2021. The continuing claims data reinforces a trend in which layoffs have stayed low but appear to be lasting longer.

—Jeff Cox

Check out some of the companies making headlines in premarket trading:

• American Airlines  — Shares sank 8% after the airline forecast an adjusted loss of 20 cents to 40 cents per share for the first quarter. That’s wider than the 2 cent loss expected by analysts LSEG polled. However, American reported an earnings and revenue beat for the fourth quarter. 
• GE Aerospace — Shares gained more than 9% after fourth-quarter results surpassed analyst estimates on the top and bottom line. GE Aerospace reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.32 on revenue of $9.88 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG forecast earnings of $1.04 per share and $9.51 billion in revenue.
• Alaska Air Group — The airline stock advanced about 2% on the heels of better-than-expected quarterly results. Alaska Air also expects a smaller-than-expected loss per share of 70 cents to 50 cents in the current quarter, while analysts polled by FactSet were expecting a loss of 75 cents.

Read the full list here.

— Brian Evans

Shares of American Airlines shed more than 7% in the premarket after the airline issued first-quarter guidance that disappointed investors.

The company expects to lose between 20 cents per share and 40 cents per share for the first three months of 2025. Analysts expected a loss of 4 cents per share, according to LSEG.

— Fred Imbert

Earnings reports were driving notable after hours stock moves on Wednesday.

Knight-Swift Transportation — Shares of the transport company gained more than 5% after fourth-quarter results showed improved operating margins. Knight-Swift reported an adjusted 36 cents in earnings per share, above the 33 cents expected by analysts, according to LSEG. 

Alaska Air — The airline stock rose 3% after fourth-quarter results topped estimates on the top and bottom lines. Alaska reported positive net income of $71 million for the quarter after booking a loss a year ago.

Check out more movers here.

— Jesse Pound

Even a strong earnings season will have some negative outliers, and Electronic Arts may be one of those for this cycle.

The video game publisher cut its net bookings guidance for the most recent quarter and its full fiscal year, which ends March 31. EA cited weakness in its Global Football franchise as a reason for the guidance change.

Shares of the company were down more than 10% in extended trading.

— Jesse Pound

Stock futures were little changed at 6 p.m. in New York. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.1%, while futures for the S&P 500 and Dow were both near the flatline.

— Jesse Pound