Japanese Geothermal Resource

JapanTimes: “Is Japan finally ready to tap its abundant geothermal energy potential?” Japan is the #5 emitter of CO2 [largely from coal] in the world, but is creating targets for renewables to comprise half its electricty by 2040. “While the largest sources are expected to be solar (22-29% of total electricity supply), hydro (8-10%) and…on-and-offshore wind (4-8%), the plan also calls for raising geothermal energy to 1%-2% of total power.” Rules regarding drilling for geothermal in national + ‘quasi-national’ parks, where am estimated 80% of geothermal potential lies, have presented significant legal + administrative barriers. However, “the more intractable problem has been from local onsen (hot spring) owners, who fear that damage to water quality due to geothermal drilling in their neighborhood would drive away customers,” both domestic + foreign. ‘The Japan Onsen Association, which has about 1,300 members nationwide, was established in 1929 and is the largest lobby group for the industry.’ Japan was ranked 10th for geothermal power generation capacity in 2023…while the U.S. held the top spot, with 3,900 MW (3.9 gigawatts or GW). Obviously, for Japan, the original instigation besides the marauding climate was the catastrophic meltdowns at 3 of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plants in 2011, which is an ongoing nuclear disaster. “An IEA report published earlier this year notes that JOGMEC has been developing cost-effective and highly accurate geothermal exploration technologies to improve how geothermal sources are identified.” While Indonesia has the highest potential conventional geothermal resource, even without advanced geothermal systems, the World Bank esimates “global geothermal power generation potential is between 70 to 80 gigawatts (GW), [though] just 15% of known geothermal reserves around the world are exploited for electricity production, generating just 13 GW.” My bias: geothermal plants are far safer than nukes on the borders of tectonic plates.