Non-firm energy sources: “hidden” costs

Non-firm energy sources: “hidden” costs

The main change in strategy undertaken in Brazil, in the electricity sector, was the massive introduction of solar and wind energy, replacing the traditional hydro.

These two sources depend on the incidence of the sun and wind, of course! Since they are two non-firm sources, as designated in the technical jargon of the sector, a new situation has emerged, which I show in numbers.

Consulting the National System Operator, it is observed, for example, that:

* In 2010, the maximum demand of the national integrated system was 64 GW and the installed capacity of plants was 96 GW. The relationship between them was 1.5.

* In 2024, the maximum demand is 100 GW and the installed capacity is 250 GW. In other words, the relationship is 2.5.

Therefore the system currently needs to have much more installed capacity relatively. Translated into investments, the change that occurred required 100 GW more than if there had been no change in the generation profile.

In generation alone (not counting transmission and distribution) the additional investment was USD 100 billion! This additional cost is paid by energy consuming customers.

Does anyone care?