Green Hydrogen in the EU: Vision 2030 or Illusion?

The European Union has set ambitious goals: by 2030, 20 million tons of green hydrogen are to be provided, 10 million tons of which are to be produced domestically. This corresponds to a capacity of approximately 224 million cubic meters of hydrogen gas. But how realistic are these goals in light of current challenges?

Current Situation

At present, the entire EU has just 324 megawatts (MW) of installed electrolysis capacity. To achieve the 2030 goals, an annual expansion of at least 5 gigawatts (GW) would be necessary – a 15-fold increase from the current pace. However, even with optimistic scenarios, the EU would not reach a capacity of 37 GW, required to produce 10 million tons of hydrogen, until 2044 or later. This highlights that current plans are far removed from reality. Additionally, the EU has stipulated that “green hydrogen” can only bear this label if it is produced simultaneously with the availability of renewable energy.

Water Scarcity and Rising Electricity Prices: Major Obstacles

Another issue is the increasing water scarcity in many parts of Europe. Added to this are rising electricity prices, which pose a significant barrier. Even though researchers have stated that producing 1 kilogram of hydrogen via electrolysis requires about 44 kWh of electricity, the price at current electricity rates is far from competitive. Water electrolysis is a water-intensive process requiring millions of cubic meters of pure water. In southern and central Europe, agriculture, drinking water supplies, and industry are already competing for scarce resources. Alternatives such as seawater desalination or wastewater treatment are neither sufficiently scaled nor economically viable.

The 9,000-Kilometer Hydrogen Network: A Plan Without Supply?

Germany plans to establish a 9,000-kilometer hydrogen backbone network by 2030. But how will this network be filled when green hydrogen production in Germany and the EU is still in its infancy? Many of these projects are still in the planning phase, and realization by 2030 seems unrealistic given the complex approval processes, lack of investments, and technical challenges.

For perspective: Germany’s planned 9,000-kilometer hydrogen backbone network could store approximately 2.12 TWh of hydrogen at a volume of 7,068,583 m³ and a pressure of 100 bar. As of December 12, 2024, however, there are no significant amounts of green hydrogen available, as most initiatives remain in the pilot phase.

Volatile Renewable Energy: Winter Months as Achilles’ Heel

The EU relies on renewable energy to power electrolysis. However, during the months of October to February, the availability of solar and wind energy is significantly limited in many regions of Europe. It is crucial to note that during this time, between 6:00 PM and 7:00 AM, all PV plants in Europe generate exactly 0 MWh of energy. With 0 MWh of electricity, it is definitively impossible to produce hydrogen.

Moreover, there is a lack of adequate power transmission networks and large storage capacities to effectively utilize excess energy from the summer months. Instead, this surplus is often curtailed, exported abroad, or lost entirely. Without a solution to these bottlenecks, ensuring energy security during the winter remains a major challenge.

The Way Forward: Hybrid Solutions like QuadCore Energy

In light of these hurdles, it is essential to consider alternative approaches. Hybrid solutions such as QuadCore Energy (QCE) offer a potential answer. This system combines renewable energy sources such as solar and wind with natural gas and hydropower to ensure a constant energy supply. Additionally, hydrogen is primarily produced thermochemically and, most importantly, around the clock, making this method significantly more economical. In Norway, strong ground-level winds, hydropower, and natural gas could be utilized, while in desert-rich regions like North Africa or Saudi Arabia, solar energy and natural gas would work in tandem.

Realistic Outlook: 2030 Goals Achievable Only by 2050?

The EU’s ambitious hydrogen targets for 2030 appear unattainable under current conditions. Realistically, they may not be realized until 2044 or even 2050 unless these challenges are addressed decisively.

It is urgently necessary to focus on innovative approaches such as hybrid solutions, the expansion of storage capacities, and improved infrastructure. Only then can the EU’s ambitious goals be realistically achieved – even if with delays.