A review by the SUN DAY Campaign of data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission reveals that electrical generation by, and the installed generating capacity of, the mix of renewable energy sources has doubled over the past decade. Solar alone has expanded more than 12-fold while wind has increased by two and one-half times.
Methodology and Key Findings:
The SUN DAY Campaign reviewed EIA’s latest monthly “Electric Power Monthly” report (with electrical generation data through June 30, 2024) and compared it to EIA’s data for June 30, 2019 and for June 30, 2014. [1] It also examined FERC’s latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with installed generating capacity data through June 30, 2024) and likewise compared it to FERC’s data for June 30, 2019 and for June 30, 2014. [2]
The installed U.S. generating capacity mix of all renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar and wind) now totals 389.00 gigawatts (GW). That is over 50% greater than five years ago (258.58-GW) and more than double the renewable energy capacity that existed a decade ago (190.26-GW). Most of the growth is attributable to additions of new solar and wind capacity.
Similarly, electrical generation by the mix of renewables has shown strong growth. Ten years ago, renewables provided 14.28% of the nation’s electrical generation. Five years later, it had grown to 20.11% and today stands at 26.01%. Again, most of the increase is due to expanding generation by wind and solar.
For the first half of 2024, the mix of renewables – including small-scale solar – provided 549,339 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electrical generation. [3] That is almost 40% more than the amount renewables generated in the first half of 2019 (399,586-GWh) and nearly double the output reported for the first half of 2014 (287,136-GWh).
Over the Past Decade, Wind Has Become the Leading Source of Renewable Electricity:
Ten years ago, hydropower boasted about 62% more capacity than wind (99.64-GW vs. 61.45-GW) and generated 40% more electricity (140,659-GWh vs. 99,739-GWh).
Five years later, the two energy sources were nearly equal in both capacity (hydro: 100.73-GW vs. wind: 98.86-GW) and electrical generation (hydro: 153,790-GWh vs. wind: 154,338-GWh).
Now, however, wind has clearly overtaken hydropower with 152.64-GW of installed capacity compared to that of hydro (100.88-GW) as well as 247,435-GWh of actual electrical output during the first six months of 2024 compared to 126,139-GWh from hydro.
As of mid-2024, wind accounted for 11.72% of total U.S. electrical generation. Five years prior, it was 7.77% and a decade ago, its share (4.96%) was less than half of today’s figure.
Wind’s share of total installed generating capacity as of June 30, 2024 was 11.75% – a significant increase from its 8.25% share five years earlier and 5.26% a decade ago.
Solar Is the Fastest Growing Source of New Capacity and Generation:
In the past decade, solar has ballooned from a fraction of a percent of both capacity and generation to become the second largest renewable in both categories.
At the end of June 2014, utility-scale solar provided a mere 9.25-GW (0.75%) of total installed U.S. generating capacity. Generation by utility-scale solar (8,535-GWh) was only 0.42% of the nation’s total and EIA was not yet reporting generation by distributed, small-scale (i.e., <1-MW) systems.
However, five years later, solar capacity (39.13-GW) accounted for 3.27% of total utility-scale capacity. Actual generation by utility-scale facilities in the first half of 2019 had risen more than four-fold to 36,042-GWh (1.81% of the total) with small-scale solar contributing an additional 17,520-GWh (0.88%).
By the middle of this year, installed solar capacity had risen to 8.99% of total utility-scale capacity while utility-scale systems had generated 102,614-GWh (4.86%) and small-scale systems added another 42,449-GWh (2.01%).
This rate of growth has defied expectations. Three years ago, FERC had projected that installed utility-scale solar capacity would reach 105.04-GW by mid-year 2024. Solar’s actual capacity today is 11.2% more than FERC’s earlier forecast. In addition, wind’s installed capacity is now 2.4% higher than FERC had anticipated.
Changes in Capacity and Generation by Hydropower, Biomass, and Geothermal Have Been Limited:
Over the past decade, the installed capacity of hydropower has edged up very slowly from 99.64-GW in June 2014 to 100.73-GW five years later and 100.88-GW today. Because the installed capacity of all energy sources combined has grown by over 8% during the past ten years, hydropower’s share of capacity has gradually declined – from 8.57% in 2014 to 8.41% in 2019 and to 7.77% in 2024.
There has not been a consistent pattern to electrical generation by the nation’s hydro facilities – it has ebbed and flowed from year-to-year. For example, it was 140,659-GWh in the first half of 2014 (7.00% of the total) and then 153,790-GWh in mid-2019 (7.74%) and is now 126,139-GWh (5.97%) for the first six months of 2024.
Electrical generation by biomass, as well as its share of installed generating capacity, have been on a slow decline for the past ten years. FERC data indicate that utility-scale biomass capacity dropped from 16.05-GW – or 1.37% of the total – in mid-2014 to 16.02-GW (1.34%) in mid-2019 to 14.54-GW (1.12%) in mid-2024. Correspondingly, actual electrical generation fell from 30,095-GWh (1.50%) during the first half of 2014 to 29,520-GWh (1.49%) five years later and then to 23,062-GWh (1.09%) this year.
The smallest renewable energy source – geothermal – has shown a pattern similar to that of hydropower. Its installed capacity has risen slightly from 3.87-GW in 2014 to 4.14-GW today while its share of the U.S. total has consistently hovered around 0.32-0.33%. Actual generation has ebbed and flowed over the past decade providing 8,108-GWh (0.40%) in the first six months of 2014, then 8,376-GWh (0.42%) in the first half of 2019, and now 7,640-GWh (0.36%).
“Notwithstanding minimal changes in the contributions by hydropower, biomass, and geothermal, renewable energy sources have doubled their share of U.S. generating capacity and electrical output over the past ten years thanks to explosive growth by both wind and solar,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “If the trends of the preceding decade continue, renewable energy sources could account for 40% or more of capacity and actual generation by 2035.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration | https://www.eesi.org/
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Notes + Sources:
[1] EIA released its latest “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through June 30, 2024) on August 23, 2024. The full report can be found at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly
For the data cited in this release, see Table ES1.B (“Total Electric Power Industry Summary Statistics, Year-to-Date 2024 and 2023”) as well as Table ES1.A (“Total Electric Power Industry Summary Statistics, 2024 and 2023”)
EIA data for June 2019 can be found at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/archive/august2019.pdf
EIA data for June 2014 can be found at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/archive/august2014.pdf
[2] FERC’s 7-page “Energy Infrastructure Update for June 2024” was released on August 20, 2024, and can be found at: https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-june-2024.
For the information cited in this update, see the tables entitled “New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion),” “Total Available Installed Generating Capacity,” and “Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements.”
FERC data for June 2019 can be found at: https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/june-energy-infrastructure.pdf
FERC data for June 2014 can be found at: https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/jun-infrastructure.pdf
[3] In its “Electric Power Monthly” report, EIA refers to small-scale or distributed solar as “Estimated Small Scale Solar Photovoltaic.” All calculations re. total electrical generation by renewables and/or all energy sources presented in this release include electrical generation by small-scale solar which EIA estimates to have totaled 42,449-GWh during the first six months of 2024 and 8,618-GWh in June alone.
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