GLOBAL ENERGY 2050: FORECAST

More than half of the world’s potential energy demand is unmet due to insolvency, as a comparison of OECD countries’ per capita consumption levels with the rest of the world shows. Until 2050, an almost two-fold gap between potential energy demand and its actual consumption is expected to remain.

The world has long waited and feared peaks in oil and gas production due to depletion of reserves. On the horizon of the coming decades, a historical moment will occur – these peaks will be passed. But the reason will not be the depletion of reserves, but a reduction in demand. The capabilities of the resource base will remain at high levels.

Rapid population growth in the poorest countries creates the conditions for growing energy poverty.

The cost of electricity production based on solar installations and wind generation for many countries around the world is becoming lower than the cost of generation using fossil fuels, but the higher their share in the production balance, the faster system costs (reservation, storage, network infrastructure, etc.) grow.

The transition to carbon-free electricity is technically feasible, but will require an increase in the cost of power supply to end consumers by 3–7 times, depending on the region.

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