In a talk given at the Hudson, OH, public library on 05/16/24, Washington Post reporter David Ignatius addressed the question of whether Saudi Arabia is still interested in a three-way, three nation, deal that includes US support for its nuclear energy related ambitions. He called the plan a “three bank pool shot.” It involves;
Ignatius was in Hudson as part of a book tour promoting his latest novel, his 12th, Phantom Orbit, in which he writes a highly fictionalized description of space wars involving the U.S., Russia, and China. (W Post Book review) He has reported extensively on this topic.
Does Saudi Arabia Have a Plan B?
In response to a question, Ignatius dismissed news media reports that the US and Saudi Arabia might peel off the military security guarantee and nuclear cooperation. Such an action would leave diplomatic recognition of Israel and support for a two-state solution to a later day.
The Guardian UK reported on 05/01/24 that the Saudi’s are “pushing for a ‘plan b’ that would seek a bilateral agreement with the US for military security support, including arms sales, and support for its civilian nuclear energy program.
The reason the Saudi government is willing to consider dropping its initiative for diplomatic recognition of Israel is the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and the adamant resistance from Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government to the creation of a Palestinian state along with its apparent determination to launch an offensive on Rafah in Gaza.
Ignatius called such reports as being “not credible.” He said that MBS, the Saudi leader, “won’t abandon the Palestinian cause.”
According to a New York Times report for 05/17/24 U.S. official have emphasized that Israel must agree to a Palestinian state for any three way agreement to be finalized. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan delivered that message on May 4 at a Financial Times conference in London.
On the other hand, in the same report the New York Times also quotes Karen Young, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, who said the [Saudi] nuclear program was the “No. 1 priority” for Prince Mohammed. For Saudi Arabia, she asserted, “it’s always been a bilateral deal; it’s not a trilateral one. Israel is so peripheral, which is beyond ironic.”
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Energy in the Mix
The revised Saudi plan, if adopted, would also include high-level sharing in the field of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. The Saudi government recently held a conference to attract investors and developers in the field of artificial intelligence. Reuters reported it is spending $40 billion with the goal of becoming a global center of excellence in the industry. The New York Times reported that more than 200,000 people attended the meeting. More than $10 billion in deals were done there, according to Saudi Arabia’s state press agency.
For instance, the New York Times reported that representatives of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) have discussed a potential partnership with U.S. venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and other financiers in recent weeks.
Separately, the Saudis are close to making an award of a contract potentially worth $14 billion for two large nuclear reactors [commercial PWRs]. Best and final offers were submitted late last Fall from Russia, China, South Korea, and France. The US interest with the reactor deal, is to prevent neither China nor Russia from winning the business.
Last March this blog reported Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salma (MBS) is a man in a hurry to seek a trifecta of an the end of the Gaza war, an Israeli commitment to Palestine statehood, and, in parallel, a US defense pact, along with crucial help for the Saudi nuclear program including uranium enrichment. This is not a horse race he can afford to lose since it ties together his goals for long term energy policy and deterrence of threats from Iran and its proxies.
U.S. and Saudi negotiators are still working on the mechanisms as to how the United States, along with IAEA inspections, maintain strict oversight of in-country uranium enrichment. Nonproliferation experts in the US have urged the State Department to postpone addressing the enrichment issue for at least 10 years. For its part, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to accept this proposal.
While PM Netanyahu is in power, Palestinian statehood is a nonstarter which is why Saudi Arabia might uncouple this element of its plans and focus on the defense pact and nuclear energy.
Senate Likely to Reject a Bilateral Agreement
The New York Times reported on 05/17/24 that Prince Mohammed wants a treaty that is ratified by a supermajority in the Senate. Administration officials told the newspaper that would be hard without a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian component in the deal, since skepticism of Saudi Arabia is strong among many Democratic and some Republican lawmakers.
Ignatius said in his recent talk that any bilateral Saudi nuclear deal, at least for now, has “zero chance” in the US Senate, e.g., approval of a 123 Agreement, although Ignatius didn’t specifically reference that process.
Ignatius added during his talk in Hudson that ‘de facto’ Israel already has had help with its defense. When Iran attacked Israel with 300 drones, Joint US /Saudi radar sites provided information on their locations aiding in efforts to shoot them down.
CNN’s report on the attack doesn’t mention the Saudi role. However, the Jerusalem post confirmed the Saudi radar sites did play a role in assisting in Israel’s defense. The reason is many of the drones and missiles had to travel over Jordanian and Saudi airspace to reach Israel.
As a practical matter, the US military responses to attacks by Iran proxies in the Middle East – Houthi forces in the Red Sea and militia groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria – are already western nation defense pact, spear headed by the US and the UK, that is already in operation even if it isn’t signed and sealed in a formal agreement. MBS already is getting in these military actions, against Iran’s proxies, the kind of support he might expect from a formal defense pact.
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