New Study Finds Electric Grid Stress Will limit Residential Electrification/Emissions Initiatives

A recently completed Jackson Associates study  ( https://maisy.com/electrification-problems.htm )  based on analysis of 18,400 US households concludes that while residential electrification would reduce emissions modestly, the additional burden on already strained electric grid capacity will significantly postpone or alter many of these initiatives. 

Electrification is the umbrella term for transitioning to electricity in all possible applications to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  Dozens of cities and states have embarked on policies to limit fossil fuel use in new residential buildings and or appliances.

Utilities are already facing unprecedented electricity demand growth in large part because of the huge increase in the number of new data centers. According to Wells Fargo, electricity demand could conceivably increase by as much as 20 percent by 2030. This unexpected electricity demand surge is causing utilities and grid operators angst across more than a dozen states resulting in delayed decommissioning of coal generation and the addition of gas-fired peaking units to provide power during peak periods (e.g., 5-9 pm in the summer). 

A critical question for the future of residential electrification initiatives is how much these programs would add to electricity demand and what are the emissions savings.

The chart shows potential percentage increases in peak period kW demand based solely on residential electrification over the next decade. These results reflect analysis of hourly loads for 18,400 actual residential households across the US assuming that all new residential dwelling units in the coming decade are all electric. This “technical potential,” analysis is traditionally applied in policy analysis to evaluate costs and benefits that would result if programs were universally adopted. From that baseline, it is easy to adjust results for program adoptions less than 100 percent.  

The significant increases in residential peak kW resulting from an electrification “technical potential” scenario over the next decade provide only modest gains for most state residential emissions (average 2.5%) as indicated by the charts. Detail for individual states is available at ( https://maisy.com/electrification-problems.htm ) .

The relatively large residential increase in peak afternoon and evening electricity use and the small savings in greenhouse gases suggests that additional burdens associated with electrification will be a hard sell to consumers as the current trajectory of electricity demand is already significantly increasing residential electricity prices. 

Consequently, residential electrification programs will likely need to wait until the electric grid digests the huge meal provided by new data centers and manufacturing growth before proceeding on its mission to reduce greenhouse gases.