WILL RENEWABLE POWER DOMINATE IN THE NEXT DECADE?

PREAMBLE:

With no concrete strategies for climate change and in accordance with the directive of recent COP meeting, every country has been attempting a transition from fossil fuels.  India, being no exception has a blueprint for energy independence by 2047 with an introduction of changing dynamics.  There are several factors that deserve consideration starting with increase in cost of power generation due to steep increase in coal price; under performance of state electricity boards; shift towards renewable energy; adhering to environmental stability measures; digitization to leverage power data and reforms in buy and sell arrangements all of which would facilitate appreciable transformation within the power sector.

Being diverse nation efficiency, reliability, digitalization and sustainability and promoting self-sufficiency could be a remarkable achievement.  It is just not the power sector itself but, associated infra like transmission and distribution assume equal treatment towards significant transformation.  In order to achieve this, it is prudent that India produce excess energy through sustainable methods clubbed with minimizing losses in transmission, distribution and consumption.

POWER GENERATION:

The process of turning different energy sources into electricity to power every aspect of our lives – homes, schools, phones etc. is vital as modern civilization cannot do without electricity.  The complex process of power generation through a variety of sources (fossil fuels, nuclear reactors, and renewables) occurs at power plants through a variety of methods specific to the source.

Electricity demand set to grow by 3% average in the next 3 years, renewables and other cleaner sources including nuclear would perhaps cover this demand.

In addition, rooftop solar panels, small wind turbines or micro hydro and even hybrid solar/wind offer diminished transmission losses, high energy efficiency and potential for localised power generation particularly, applicable in remote areas.

The progress from fossil fuel to the latest hybrid solar/wind is indeed a result of the repeated emphasis on energy transition from fossil fuel including the recent COP mandate. It is however to be seen how soon this turns into a monopoly in the world.

SOURCES OF GHG EMISSION

As of January 2024, carbon dioxide records 423 ppm compared to lower than 320 ppm values of 1960s.  Carbon dioxide, a heat trapping gas is a resultant of extraction and burning of fossil fuels, wild fires and natural processes like volcanic eruptions.   Human activities during the industrial times have enhanced carbon dioxide by 50% which is believed to be greater than natural increase.  The annual rise and fall of carbon dioxide levels is attributed to plant behavioural pattern during different seasons both in the northern and southern hemispheres.

Despite a number of sources contributing to increase in carbon dioxide, fossil fuels are targeted as the major culprit.  Let us look at the GHG emissions in US for example for 2021:

                                                                 Table 1                                     

                                                                  Table 2 

If you look at the tables above, electric power’s contribution is 25% while transportation happens to be the major contributor with 28% and then industry at 23%.  Land Use and Forestry not listed in the above table however account for 12% offset of 2021 GHG – again not segmented into which sector’s GHG account for higher offset.   

The same logic extended to other countries could understandably present a different picture from that of the US depending upon not only the power generation through fossil fuel but also the other sectors.  Similarly, the offset potential would vary depending upon the green cover.

GLOBAL TREND OF GHG EMISSIONS:

While electricity and heat production are considered to contribute significantly to global emission followed by transport, manufacturing, construction and agriculture, there is considerable variation country wise especially US where, transport overtakes electricity.  Annually, around 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalents are emitted globally. 

While we are looking closely at carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and trace gases such as the group of ‘F-gases’ also contribute significant amount of warming to date.  The following table provides a glimpse of 1850 and 2021 emissions by a few countries as just a reference:

WHAT HAPPENS TO THESE GASES?

Earth’s atmosphere comprises nitrogen which is 3 times more than oxygen and in addition, carbon dioxide, and argon and trace gases.  Nitrogen (78.1%) is stable and demands a lot of energy to change forms and as a part of nitrogen cycle; there is an exchange between atmosphere and living organisms. Oxygen (20.9%) as we all know is the most essential element for human life but unlike nitrogen, it readily takes part in chemical reactions as it is an electron thief.  Argon (0.93%) is an inert gas and is one of the possible products when potassium radioactively decays.  Carbon dioxide (0.04%) is believed to have increased due to human activities.  Carbon takes up various forms – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and glucose (C6H12O6).  Neon, helium, methane and krypton are a few trace gases that make up a small part of the atmosphere.

In addition to the gases, about 5% by volume of water vapour in hot regions and less in colder region is equally important.  It regulates air temperature as it absorbs solar radiation.  It changes form from water vapour to a liquid (condensation turns it into rain). Water is always in motion due to hydrological cycle – glaciers, oceans, plants and humans.

Carbon emissions are focussed around North America, Europe and Asia.  However, global weather patterns and ocean currents disperses the gas finding its circulation path. Seasonal patterns also affect amount of carbon dioxide – plants absorb substantial amount of carbon dioxide in spring and summer – Earth’s metabolism or net primary productivity.

Source:Internet

Atmospheric chemistry deals with a molecule or a fragment of molecule traveling a distance and bumping into another species or through a photochemical reaction triggered by a photon (energy associated with electromagnetic radiation) of ultraviolet radiation is absorbed.  Electromagnetic radiation of short wavelength breaks chemical bonds in molecules to form a reactive species that can participate in reaction sequence (Chain reaction).  Chlorofluorocarbons are an example (Freons, trade name) where carbon atoms to which fluorine and chlorine atoms are bonded.  They find use in air conditioners, hair spray and foam blowing.  Dichlorodifluoromethane was used in automobile air conditioners.   It remains stable until reaching very high altitudes in the stratosphere where, ultraviolet radiation breaks the strong C-Cl bonds.

Some particles in the atmosphere consists water droplets with various solutes dissolved in them – Good example is that of Sulphur dioxide which turns into sulphuric acid contributing to acid rain.

The disappearance of ozone (70%) since the mid-1970s resulted in ‘Ozone hole’ as ozone is most unstable.  This is related to the usage of chlorine from industrial chemicals in spray cans, foam packaging and refrigeration.

Carbon dioxide is consistent where the atmosphere is well mixed at a few hundred meters – 280 ppmV of the pre-industrial times has changed into 400 ppmV today (slight variation observed in the northern hemisphere (annual blooming of plants in spring) which is absent in southern hemisphere.

 OPTIONS TO CURTAIL CO2:

Having understood the culprit for climate change, there have been repeated warnings to reduce the fossil fuel power generation.  Renewables especially solar and wind have come to the rescue globally as the power generation through these two sources is increasing phenomenally.  In addition to opting for the unlimited and carbon free sources for power generation, there are attempts to curtail carbon emissions otherwise as well.

There are three principal reasons to reduce carbon dioxide – save lives (avoid health impact); reduce the burden on healthcare system and reduce wildfires (being carbon emission sources).  It has been evident that plants (vegetation-higher percentage) kept the carbon dioxide in balance.   Although it is impossible to revive the lost forests, a suggestion to plant trees which is least expensive seems to be one of the options to curtail carbon emissions.  In addition, reducing air travel could save almost 1.6 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; while car-free lifestyle may not be possible, substituting them with two wheelers or opting for public transport (bus/Metro) could help to a considerable extent in reducing carbon emissions.  Even converting homes more energy-efficient could add to these efforts as well.  Considering an emission of over 220 grams of carbon dioxide for every gram of beef, it is advisable to reduce meat consumption as an option to account towards carbon curtail.

It is therefore evident that each sector starting from food to political activation through clothing, shopping, home, transportation and air travel can combine with the option that power generation has chosen to strengthen the goal of carbon reduction.

Despite the attempts mentioned above, the recent IEA report states that carbon emissions aren’t decreasing as the clean energy deployment and emission reduction seems to remain insufficient to satisfy COP28 target and Paris Agreement goals.

DOES THE TREND ON RENEWABLES CONTINUE?

Clean Energy Market Monitor finds that due to ambitious policy support and continued cost decline, clean energy investment has been up by almost 50% at least in the US – Annual solar PV and wind additions in 2023 increased by 85% and 60% respectively.  Similarly, China and the developed economies were responsible for 90% of the new solar and wind power capacity and 95% of global EV sales.

Clean energy technologies seem to have avoided 2.2 billion tons of annual emissions between 2019 and 2023.  In fact, solar alone has helped to avoid equivalent of Japan’s energy sector’s annual emissions.  With an encouraging story from these countries, the demand for coal in developing markets accounted for 70% of increase in global emissions.

The energy transition progress may have to pick pace with timeline to achieve global goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030 to limit emissions in accordance with Paris Agreement.

            Impact of renewables on environment

Solar particles and magnetic fields comprise solar wind – energy that heats the corona and speeds up the solar wind to determine wind’s magnetic field. The phenomenon that shocks our magnetic protection causing turbulence is triggered as the wind blows towards the earth carrying with it Sun’s magnetic field which moves very fast smacking earth’s magnetic field.  Effect of solar wind is not only important not only to those who live on earth but will become critical to learn mitigating its effects.  Funnier side of the phenomenon is that when Sun sneezes, Earth catches cold as we experience the impact that happens to Sun due to solar wind.

It is believed that solar energy is expected to replace fossil fuels world over by 2050 considering its fast growth.   It is also presumed that once this happens, we may breathe a sigh of relief as it would swiftly mitigate climate change.  Solar PV stands out against many options closest being wind followed by hydro, bio, and solar thermal and even geothermal.  Australia with 99% new generation capacity with solar and wind leads the way for many to follow.

This development paves way for electrifying everything including electric vehicles, electric heat pumps, electric furnaces and even electrolysis of water producing green hydrogen for the chemical industry.  This continued trend would witness altogether a different energy world by the mid-century.

CONCLUSION:

A K Shyam 373 Canarabank Layout First Main 1st Cross Vidyaranyapura Post BENGALURU – 560 097, Karnataka, India.  Email: akshay1948@gmail.com