Central Ohio forecast for total solar eclipse Monday afternoon

We are now three days away from the total solar eclipse. Each day, we have been tracking model cloud forecasts, focused on the path of totality, which stretches from Texas to Maine and covers 13 states, including the northwestern portion of Ohio. The remainder of the state will continue to see a partial eclipse.

Early indications have positioned a frontal system stretching from Texas to the Upper Midwest, which will be the focus of a broad band of cloud cover, with scattered showers moving through the Ohio Valley early Monday leaving a blanket of lower clouds.

The key to optimal viewing will be a partial clearing trend in the afternoon on Monday, Apr. 8, as drier air works in from the west. The model probability map, which is currently just a snapshot and subject to refinement through the weekend, suggests there will be some sunshine, though clouds will be slow to break in some areas.

The chance for showers will diminish to isolated pockets of rain earlier in the day. The challenge is whether the cloud cover will part sufficiently.

Historically, Columbus has been mostly cloudy around between 12 and 4 p.m. in early April in two-thirds of the years during El Niño, when warmer-than-normal water extends across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, based on a NOAA analysis of data from 1979-2022.

This is consistent with our spring pattern that features a more active subtropical jet stream feeding moisture northward, intercepting frontal systems and associated storms.

Storm Team 4 will continue to update the most accurate forecast for April 8th.

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