If you live by the sun, you also die by the sun. That of course is hyperbole, but next week’s eclipse does illustrate a weakness of solar – and wind for that matter. If the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow your energy output is negatively impacted.
Although this post focuses on the eclipse, this natural occurrence happens so infrequently that it isn’t much more than a rounding error. However, the larger issue is putting all our clean energy eggs in baskets that rely on the elements, when those very elements are becoming increasingly unpredictable as a result of the problem we are trying to solve.
But back to eclipses. The last one happened in 2017. Because solar only accounted for 1.3% of our energy output, the impact was muted. That eclipse’s path of totality only hit 17 utility-scale generators. Hundreds of other plants totaling 4.0 gigawatts of capacity were 90% obscured.
Fast-forward to next week. Solar now supplies 6% of U.S. electricity generation so the impact will be far greater. Solcast, a solar modeling and forecasting company, is estimating that some areas will lose 16% of their daily output. They put the total estimated losses at 39.9 gigawatt-hours. Of that, 16.2 GWh will be lost from residential rooftop systems.
Texas will experience the eclipse for about an hour during peak production hours. According to Solcast, ERCOT could lose almost 11% of its normal generation.
Interestingly, the worst-case scenario would be if the day of the eclipse is perfectly sunny. For those in the path of totality it would mean going from maximum output to zero, then back max output. Utility operators hate that stuff.
The good thing about eclipses is that they are predictable. This allows grid operators to maintain stability by having other electricity supplies ready to go.
#eclispe, #eclispe2024 #eclispesolar #solareclipse #solarystsem
