World Oil Demand
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged from last month’s assessment at 2.2 mb/d. A slight upward adjustment to the US forecast has been made given the improving expectation for the US economy, which will have a positive impact on oil demand. This offsets the downward revision made in OECD Europe. The OECD is projected to expand by around 0.3 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d this year. In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see a robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production in 2024 is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d, revised down from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers for liquids supply growth in 2024 are expected to be the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Norway. The forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2025 stands at 1.3 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month, mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Kazakhstan and Guyana. Separately, OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by around 64 tb/d this year to average 5.5 mb/d, followed by a growth of 110 tb/d in 2025 to average 5.6 mb/d. OPEC-12 crude oil production in January decreased by 350 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 26.34 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.