Despite continued talk of a nuclear renaissance, results on the ground show that nuclear power worldwide continues to go backwards. Future prospects also look dim.
Let’s look at some stats:
➡️ Nuclear’s share of the global electricity mix now sits at 9.2% – barely half its peak of 17.2% in 1996.
➡️ In 2023, there were 5 reactor starts and 5 closures, resulting in a net loss of 1.7 GW of capacity. There were 6 reactor *construction* starts, 5 of which were in China.
➡️ Due to the aging reactor fleet, the IAEA expects 10 reactors to close each year between 2018 and 2050. If true, that means the industry would need 10 reactor starts and 10 reactor construction starts each year just to hold the current position. But over the last decade it’s only averaged around 6 of each per year.
What about SMRs?
Efforts to commercialise a new generation of advanced nuclear reactors are simply not on track. NuScale’s announcement in November to abandon its flagship project followed several other setbacks for advanced reactors.
What about China?
In 2023, China added 1.2 GW of nuclear capacity, equivalent to about 7 TWh per year. However, China also added 278 GW of wind and solar, equivalent to about 427 TWh per year. Nuclear is not scaling very fast in China.
This suggests that, while the COP28 goal of tripling renewable energy by 2030 is a stretch but not impossible, the pledge to triple nuclear power by 2050 looks like a long shot at best.
Is this a problem? For those countries not endowed with strong renewable energy resources it probably is.
I’m interested in the why. When nuclear offers steady, reliable, low carbon electricity that doesn’t need a battery backup, why is it going backwards? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
