Transformer – How U.S. Clean Energy Happens

Let me just make some brief comments on this very interesting and useful article.

1) EIA will say, as they always do, that they must assume current regulations, the current situation in the market, etc.  They refuse to forecast future developments, and insist their forecasts are projections – given things stay the same – and not forecasts.  EIA has been historically very reticent about its record with these projections, and it is not a trivial exercise to get how accurate they are.  Richard Newell tried to do this as Administrator, and it has not been a major feature of EIA’s work since.

2) I don’t doubt that the REPEAT work was useful in helping the Administration make its decisions.  But the change in the U.S. House after the 2022 election also likely had a major effect in driving developments, and that should receive some emphasis.