I have been privileged to witness the emergence of photovoltaics (PV) and wind-power as major energy generation technologies. Lately it has seemed to be inevitable that these technologies would be able to meet the major challenge of doing most of the heavy lifting as we transition to greenhouse gas (GHG) free electricity. Others agree.
Renewables have historically been considered expensive, their deployment requiring high subsidies or carbon taxes. However, following a fruitful history of innovation and past climate policy, renewables now increasingly compete with fossil fuels. Whether renewables become the new normal increasingly hinges upon industry and trade development rather than a pure normative necessity to meet carbon budgets. Policymakers urgently need to know not only whether a renewables future is possible, but whether it is materializing.
Between 2010 and 2020, the cost of solar PV fell by 15% each year, representing a technological learning rate of around 20% per doubling of installed capacity. At the same time, the installed capacity has risen by 25% per year, causing and partly caused by these cost reductions. Meanwhile, onshore wind capacity grew by 12% a year, with a learning rate of 10% per doubling of capacity. If these rates of rapid co-evolution are maintained, solar PV and wind power appear ready to irreversibly become the dominant electricity technologies within 1-2 decades, as their costs and rate of growth far undercut all alternatives…
