Hydrogen Economic Modelling Results
New Zealand focussed but with wider resonance.
Five scenarios that represent a range of possible hydrogen futures for New Zealand’s green hydrogen sector out to 2050. The first scenario is a base case that represents a future where hydrogen is pursued in hard-to-abate sectors where hydrogen is expected to be commercially viable. The other four scenarios represent alternative futures where green hydrogen is built out with different objectives as the key driver:
1. Base case: Hydrogen uptake is focused in hard-to-abate sectors where hydrogen is currently expected to be commercially viable
2. Accelerated uptake: Hydrogen uptake and supply are accelerated and driven by the need to decarbonise and meet New Zealand’s emissions reductions target
3. Energy security and resilience: Hydrogen uptake and supply are driven by the need to improve New Zealand’s energy resilience against global energy shocks
4. Export market: Hydrogen supply is driven by both domestic demand and export demand
5. Value-add export: Hydrogen supply is driven by domestic demand, export demand and as an input for value-add commodities such as methanol, steel, and fertiliser.