Chinese oil giant Sinopec has announced that it is expecting gasoline demand in #China to peak this year, two years earlier than its previous forecasts.
This is interesting. This prediction hasn’t come from an over optimistic industry analyst. It’s an oil company making the announcement that demand for its main product will decline from now on.
And it’s significant for the world in general. China has been the largest driver of global growth for refined oil products like gasoline and diesel over the last two decades.
And what is causing this? Uptake of #electricvehicles of course!
➡️ EV adoption rates in China are approaching 40% of new passenger vehicle sales, up from 6% in 2020.
➡️ 70% of total kms travelled by 2 and 3-wheeled vehicles have already switched over to electric.
➡️ Ride hailing vehicles are also going big on electric, with 50% of kms travelled in the industry switching to electric, driven by government policy and lower operating costs.
The switch to electric trucks will take longer. And this is why BNEF (and the IEA and Rystad) are forecasting peak oil demand for road transport in China to peak next year.
Much has been made of Norway’s successful shift to #EVs, but Norway is tiny and this doesn’t have much impact on global oil demand. It’s a different story with China reaching peak gasoline.